Sharp recovery in PH exports of electronics seen

Philippine exports are estimated to have grown by 9.1 percent in March as the global electronics market showed an unmistakeable recovery, according to DBS Group.

The financial service provider said in a new research the electronics cycle “has taken a decisive upswing” and orders from North America for semiconductor shipments reached a 19-month high in March.

“Notably, bookings rose to $1.5 billion, up from $1.1 billion in December,” DBS said. “This bodes well for [Philippine] exports in the coming few months and the robust export numbers should translate into a sharp acceleration in GDP growth for the first quarter.”

The Singapore-based group added that this means it is possible that actual expansion of the economy this year would be higher than its forecast of 4.2 percent.

DBS observed that electronics exports had a V-shaped recovery in the first two months of the year, turning around from 11 consecutive months of decline.

According to the National Statistics Office, export receipts grew by 14.6 percent in February after ending a downtrend with -3.2 percent in January.

Also in January and February, preliminary data from NSO showed that electronics shipments were still declining at -26.9 percent and -5.1 percent, respectively.

“In absolute terms, the value of electronics exports has recovered to levels not seen since [the $1.62 billion posted in] November 2010,” DBS said.

“This strong showing will be followed through in March and we expect [electronics] growth to reach 16.1 percent.

Moreover, DBS said that the improvement in exports is also seen in non-electronic goods.

“This component of exports has held up relatively well—with growth only turning negative in the last two months of 2011—but has also shown a clear improvement in January and February,” DBS said.