Philippine economy expected to grow over 6% in 2025-2026
Manila Skyline | PHOTO: JMS
MANILA, Philippines – The Philippine economy is on track for robust growth, with Department of Finance (DOF) Secretary Ralph Recto and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projecting an acceleration in 2025 and 2026.
Recto expressed optimism that the country’s economic performance in the fourth quarter of 2024 surpassed the 5.2 percent growth recorded in the third quarter, bringing the full-year growth close to or above 6 percent.
“I think it [fourth quarter growth] will be faster than Q3 (third quarter). Q3 was 5.2 [percent]. I think it will definitely be faster than Q3,” Recto told reporters during a recent briefing.
READ: Recto: Gov’t might have missed 2024 growth target
Recto said there’s also a chance that economic growth will hit 6 percent in the fourth quarter.
“Possible. If it hits 6 [percent] in the fourth quarter, I’ll be happy with that,” he said.
The Philippine economy grew by 5.2 percent in the third quarter of 2024, bringing the year-to-date gross domestic product (GDP) expansion to 5.8 percent.
The Philippine Statistics Authority will release official fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 economic growth data on January 30.
For 2025, Recto is confident that the economy will expand by over 6 percent, with key drivers including strong domestic consumption and investments.
Drivers of growth
The IMF said that from 2025 to 2026, domestic demand will drive economic growth, namely consumption and investment.
In its recently released World Economic Outlook, the IMF retained its economic growth projection at 6.1 percent for 2025 and 6.3 percent for 2026.
“Consumption growth will be supported by lower food prices and gradual monetary policy easing,” an IMF spokesperson said in an email.
The IMF spokesperson said investment growth is also expected to pick up on the back of a sustained public investment push, gradually declining borrowing costs, and acceleration in the implementation of public-private partnership projects and FDI (foreign direct investment), following recent legislative reforms.
Meanwhile, the IMF projects headline inflation to settle at 2.8 percent in 2025 and 3 percent in 2026, both well within the government’s 2 to 4 percent.
