Rising higher on ides of March

Skillfully captured and presented by Shakespeare in his play “Julius Caesar,” the phrase “Ides of March” became more than just another date. It became a day to reckon with, conveying not only danger but certain ruin as it did to Julius Caesar.

This impression has as well influenced the mindset of the local stock market. For investors, it’s a seasonal event imbued with gloom and disaster.

If we look closer at the results of trading last week, this was not exactly what seemed to happen or had happened.

While the market last week evidently fell, ending lower by 35.59 points, or 0.71 percent, to 4,980.71 from 5,016.30, the daily trading trend of the market looked different.

On March 5, the market opened at 5,016.13 and closed higher for the day at 5,030.58, up 14.28 points, or 0.28 percent. This was also the market’s high for the day.

On Tuesday, the market deviated from its pattern. It opened higher at 5,039.29 but lost steam and fell lower to 4,967.39. As a result, the market declined by 63.19 points, or 1.26 percent.

Reacting as most investors do after experiencing a setback, the market opened slightly lower on Wednesday at 4,961.97. But as it happened, the market never moved any higher from there, revealing a weak market momentum and investors’ attitude.

On Wednesay, it was the same story. Trading continued to be bearish. The market was more prone to sell than to buy during the day.

As proof, total value turnover was even bigger at P7.90 billion compared to P5.99 billion the day before. This caused the market index on Wednesday to again fall by 43.03 points, or 0.93 percent, when it closed at 4,921.36.

On Thursday, the trend reversed. The market recovered and discharged all the losses it incurred in the two previous days. The market closed higher at 4,956.19, up 39.83 points, or 0.71 percent, on a volume of 4.94 billion shares and a slightly lower value turnover from the previous P6.42 billion.

On Friday, the market became stronger, closing higher at 4,980.71, up 24.52 points, or 0.49 percent, from 4,955.75. This was despite the fact that total value turnover was smaller at P5.40 billion.

The monthly movements of the market index since the beginning of the year showed a different story from what should be happening on the Ides of March.

On Dec. 29, 2011, the market index was only at 4,371.96. It was up 172.65 points, or 4.11 percent, from the closing index of 2010.

This was a big contrast to what happened in the first two months of this year. If you look at the market’s closing performance on January 31, the market index hit 4,682.44, which was up by a stunning 310.48 points, or 7.10 percent.

On February 29, it was the same exciting story. The market index continued to climb. By then, the market index had hit 4,897.65. This was up by another 215.21 points, or 4.59 percent.

As of last Friday, March 9, the market index was up by another 83.06 points at 4,980.71.

By then, the market index has impressively climbed to 608.75 points, 13.92 percent higher since Dec. 29, 2011.

One good reason why the market is on a constant climb, in addition to the effect of positive fundamental developments now unfolding in the United States and Europe, is that foreign investors’ buying transactions continued to outweigh foreign selling.

Last week, foreign buying transactions continued to be substantial, amounting to P13.28 billion. Foreign selling transactions only amounted to P12.05 billion.

The week before last, foreign buying transactions were even bigger. It amounted to P14.98 billion, while foreign selling transactions only amounted to P12.42 billion.

If we stretch the review to the beginning of the year, a monthly pattern would seem to appear. In January, total foreign buying transactions hit P59.93 billion while total foreign selling transactions reached P43.07 billion. In February, it stood at P76.50 billion and P70.03 billion, respectively.

In the first nine days of March, foreign buying amounted to P19.45 billion while foreign selling reached P17.0 billion.

Lastly, it is worth pointing out that foreign buying transactions have been almost always bigger than foreign selling transactions on a daily basis.

The market may still be rising on account of several good leads affecting the market. But with the onset of the ides of March, along with the continued fluidity of the situation in the market, it is best to refrain from being too bold, unlike the man in the following story sent by a friend:

Some tough-looking bikers were riding when they saw a woman about to jump off a bridge. So, they stopped. The leader—a big burly man—got off his bike and said, “What are you doing?” “I’m going to commit suicide,” she wryly answered.

While he didn’t want to appear insensitive, he didn’t want to miss an opportunity either. So he asked, “Well, before you jump, why don’t you give me a kiss?” So, she did. It was a long, deep, lingering kiss with a lot of tongue action.

“After she finished, the biker said, “Wow! That was the best kiss I’ve ever had! That was a real talent you are wasting. You could be famous. Why in the world would you want to commit suicide?” The person answered, “My parents don’t like me dressing up like a girl.”

(The writer is a licensed stockbroker of Eagle Equities, Inc. You may reach the Market Rider at [email protected] or [email protected]. Visit www.kapitaltek.com.)