PH ʼ24 tourism arrivals forecast cut to 6M

Ninoy Aquino International Airport Terminal 3. INQUIRER PHOTO / RICHARD A. REYES

The volume of tourist arrivals in the Philippines is expected to reach just 6 million by the end of the year, according to BMI Research, a unit of the Fitch Group.

This is a downgrade from an earlier projection of 6.6 million, as the sector is yet to fully recover from the devastation caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

READ: Boracay tourism dips from 1.79M to 1.72M

BMI Research said that while tourist arrivals hit 4.5 million from January to October, which was higher than the 4.1 million tallied in the comparable period in 2023, it was still not enough to pull up the numbers to what they were before the global health crisis hit in 2020.

“This is just 66.5 percent of the tourist arrivals during the comparable period over 2019, highlighting how the sector is still in a postpandemic recovery phase,” the report read.

Short of target

“With ten months of tourist arrivals data published for 2024, we maintain our view that arrivals over the year will fall short of a full pandemic recovery,” the report also said.

The latest projection would still mean a 19.5 percent growth for 2024, although still considerably less than the 8.2 million recorded in 2019 and short of the government’s target this year of 7.7 million.

Bank of America said in an earlier report that the Philippine tourism sector’s recovery has been hampered by the lack of Chinese tourists, with arrivals from China just at 20-30 percent of prepandemic levels.

Global inflation that has reduced discretionary spending is another factor.

Tourism plans

The Fitch Group unit, however, said that they see a full recovery in 2025, projecting that tourist arrivals will grow 38.4 percent to 8.3 million next year.

Earlier on Monday, President Marcos outlined initiatives aligned with the National Tourism Development Plan 2023–2028 and spotlighted the government’s cruise visa waiver program, which simplifies entry for international cruise passengers.

The DOT said that the Philippines has 125 cruise calls across over 30 destinations in 2023, demonstrating its appeal to the global cruise market.

The government agency said that the Philippines anticipates over 109 calls in 2024, with schedules already extending into 2027.