Forecast: PH to hit record rice imports in ’25

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The Philippines may reach new record overseas rice purchases until next year as it tries to meet an increasing demand for this staple food from a growing population.

The US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA-FAS) said the country’s rice imports could reach 5 million metric tons (MT) this year, up by 6.4 percent from its previous estimate of 4.7 million MT.

Upward projection

The projection has been revised upward due to “high volumes of Vietnam rice import,” the USDA-FAS said in its latest “Grain: World Markets and Trade” report.

If attained, this will breach the record-high imports of 3.83 million MT in 2022.

Staple

The foreign agency also changed its 2025 forecast to 5.1 million MT from the 4.9 million MT previously because of the “growing consumption as rice is an important staple.”

According to the report, the Philippines is importing “record amounts” as demand picks up alongside lower import duties.

“Thus far in 2024, the Philippines relied on Vietnam for more than 80 percent of imports,” it added.

The USDA-FAS said Vietnam, the country’s leading source of imported rice, managed to “meet the burgeoning demand” from various countries including the Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia as it secured additional supplies from Cambodia.

“Expanded imports from neighboring Cambodia have allowed Vietnam to boost its exports to meet strong foreign demand,” it added.

A previous report from the USDA-FAS in Manila quoted industry contacts saying the reduced tariffs provided “an attractive incentive” for traders to bring imported rice into the country.

Tariff rates

Per Executive Order No. 62 signed by President Marcos in June this year, rice tariff rates would stay at a lower 15 percent, from the previous 35 percent, until 2028.

Based on data from the Bureau of Plant Industry, the volume of imported rice that entered the country as of Oct. 30 totaling 3.79 million MT had already surpassed 2023’s 3.6 million MT.

Vietnam supplied nearly 80 percent of the total with 2.98 million MT, followed by Thailand with 470,273.28 MT and Pakistan with 175,174.48 MT.

Former Agriculture Undersecretary Leocadio Sebastian said last week that rice imports might hit a new record of 4.2 million MT by the end of this year as estimated by the DA following substantial losses from typhoons.

Sebastian had said the country might purchase at least 400,000 MT in the last two months of 2024, depending on world market pricing.