Stock markets hesitant before knife-edge US election

A screen on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Monday, Nov. 4, 2024 shows a broadcast talking about Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

New York, United States — European and US stock markets dipped while the dollar slid Monday as investors steel themselves for a coin-toss US presidential election, an interest rate decision and expected Chinese stimulus measures.

Oil prices rallied more than two percent after eight members of the OPEC+ group of producers said Sunday they would extend supply cuts until the end of next month.

They had been delaying output hikes on worries about slowing demand in China and the United States.

READ: US Fed to debate rate cut in shadow of presidential election

While Asian markets gained, tracking a positive lead from Wall Street ahead of the weekend, European markets were mostly lower and US markets wobbled.

“Traders are gearing up for perhaps the most important week of the year,” said Joshua Mahony, chief market analyst at Scope Markets.

Investors are looking for any hint of an advantage between the US presidential candidates as Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and her Republican rival, ex-president Donald Trump, remain neck and neck in opinion polls ahead of Tuesday’s poll.

The dollar retreated against its main rivals Monday as a fresh survey in Iowa — which Trump won in 2016 and 2020 — showed Harris leading over the weekend.

A victory for Trump is seen as being positive for the dollar and pushing up Treasury yields owing to his pledges to cut taxes and impose hefty tariffs on imports.

Elections for the Senate and House of Representatives are also being closely watched amid speculation the Republicans could take control of both.

“If the Republicans sweep all three, that will open the door to significant fiscal changes, which is negative for bondholders and could spell higher yields until the dust settles,” said Peter Esho, founder of Esho Capital.

READ: Peso caught up in US election frenzy

The election comes before the Federal Reserve is due to make its latest policy decision this week, with investors expecting a 25-basis-point reduction after a bumper 50-point cut at its last gathering.

With the candidates running neck-in-neck, little can be said with certainty.

The vote is of particular interest to China, where officials in Beijing are meeting this week to hammer out an economic stimulus.

Economists expect lawmakers to approve around one trillion yuan ($140 billion) in extra budget spending, mostly for indebted local governments, and a one-off one-trillion yuan payment for banks.

Hong Kong made gains and Shanghai was up more than one percent at the close. Tokyo was shut for a holiday.

In European trading, both Paris and Frankfurt ended the day lower but London bucked the trend to edge higher, with the Bank of England widely expected to cut its main interest rate on Thursday after inflation dropped below its target rate.

Oil prices also firmed after Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned at the weekend that Israel and the United States “will definitely receive a tooth-breaking response” to Israeli attacks on October 26.

That strike was in response to an October 1 barrage of about 200 missiles against its rival.

Key figures around 2020 GMT 

New York – Dow: DOWN 0.6 percent at 41,794.60 (close)

New York – S&P 500: DOWN 0.3 percent at 5,712.69 (close)

New York – Nasdaq Composite: DOWN 0.3 percent at 18,179.98 (close)

London – FTSE 100: UP 0.1 percent at 8,184.24 (close)

Paris – CAC 40: DOWN 0.5 percent at 7,371.71 (close)

Frankfurt – DAX: DOWN 0.6 percent at 19,147.85 (close)

Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 0.3 percent at 20,567.52 (close)

Shanghai – Composite: UP 1.2 percent at 3,310.21 (close)

Tokyo – Nikkei 225: Closed for a holiday

Euro/dollar: UP at $1.0878 from $1.0834 on Friday

Pound/dollar: UP at $1.2954 from $1.2924

Dollar/yen: DOWN at 152.17 yen from 153.01 yen

Euro/pound: UP at 83.94 from 83.86 pence

Brent North Sea Crude: UP 2.7 percent at $75.08 per barrel

West Texas Intermediate: UP 2.9 percent at $71.47 per barrel