The Department of Agriculture (DA) anticipates domestic palay (unmilled rice) production to decline this year due to the combined effects of El Niño and La Niña weather phenomena and the typhoons that affected the country.
The DA revised its palay output projection for 2024 to 19.41 million metric tons (MT), a 3.1 percent decrease from the previous estimate of 20.04 million MT. The new volume is equivalent to 12.69 million MT of milled rice.
Citing a forecast from the Philippine Statistics Authority, palay production is pegged at 3.35 million MT in the third quarter of this year, a decline of 11.9 percent, primarily because of significant crop damage from recent typhoons.
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Agriculture Undersecretary Christopher Morales said the loss in local output is projected at 358,000 MT, based on historical damages and actual risks this quarter.
“The decrease in production would have been higher were it not for higher production yield due to better seeds, farm equipment and other support provided through the Rice fund under the Rice Tariffication Law and National Rice Program,” the DA said in a statement on Wednesday.
The Philippines recorded the highest palay output of 20.06 million MT last year, 1.53 percent higher than the year prior. It surpassed the previous record of 19.96 million logged in 2019.
So far, the statistics agency reported that the country had produced 8.53 million MT of palay in the first semester of 2024, down by 5.5 percent from the same period last year.
The PSA will publish the third quarter report on the Philippine agriculture sector’s performance in November.
Enough for local consumption
Despite the anticipated decline, the DA still sees a robust rice supply of 3.83 million MT this year, enough to cover the country’s consumption for 100 days.
Morales said the rosy outlook considered the updated rice stockpile data, actual import arrivals and historical trends.
“The recent cut in tariff rates further incentivized imports, allowing for greater access to global rice markets and mitigating potential shortages,” Morales said.
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Early this month, the US Department of Agriculture estimated that the country would import 4.7 million MT of rice this year due to the strong buying of Vietnam rice.
The foreign agency said rice import would surge to 4.9 million MT in 2025 due to a smaller crop delivered by local farms.
Meanwhile, the US Department of Agriculture said the country’s milled rice production would end at 12.7 million MT in 2024 and 12.3 million next year due to crop damage from successive typhoons and a reduction in area harvested due to land conversion.
This year, the Philippines has imported 3.59 million MT rice as of Oct. 17, based on Bureau of Plant Industry data.
Most of the imported rice came from Vietnam, which exported 2.84 million MT. Other countries such as Thailand, Pakistan, Myanmar and India supplied rice to the archipelago.
All rice stocks purchased from abroad are levied an import duty of 15 percent until 2028, based on Executive Order No. 62 signed by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. in June this year.