Asian markets mixed as rate cut bets are trimmed; US vote in focus

Currency traders work at the foreign exchange dealing room of the KEB Hana Bank headquarters in Seoul, South Korea, Wednesday, Oct. 23, 2024. (AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon)

Hong Kong, China — Asian equities diverged Wednesday after another unremarkable day on Wall Street, where rising bond yields and comments from Federal Reserve officials dampened expectations for US interest rate cuts.

A global rally that has seen several markets hit multiple records — particularly in New York — appears to have run out of gas as traders assess the US central bank’s plans in the wake of forecast-topping economic data and ahead of a tight presidential election.

They are also keeping tabs on Beijing, hoping for more measures to reignite growth after a slew of stimulus over the past month, while geopolitical tensions helped push safe-haven gold to another peak.

READ: IMF predicts slightly slower global growth in 2024 and 2025

Bets on another bumper 50-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting have dwindled following a recent spate of data showing the world’s top economy in rude health and the labour markets resilient.

A number of key members of the bank’s policy board have said that while they are in favour of further reductions, they did not want to go too quickly.

That comes as markets eye a possible Donald Trump victory in next month’s presidential polls, which observers warn could see him implement tax cuts and impose tariffs that could restoke inflation.

Treasury yields are at their highest since July.

“Investors are navigating a tangled web of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, a Federal Reserve turning out less dovish than expected, and the sudden reawakening of the ‘Trump Trade’,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management.

“The latter has shaken the bond market, forcing some bond traders to pull their heads out of the sand as real jitters emerge about the fiscal landscape post-election.”

The Dow and S&P 500 both fell for a second straight day on Wall Street, having ended at fresh peaks Friday, though the Nasdaq ticked higher.

Asian markets fluctuated.

Tokyo ticked down despite a weaker yen caused by a softening of expectations on US rate cuts. The Japanese unit is sitting at levels not seen since July.

However, shares in Tokyo Metro rocketed 45 percent on their debut after its government owners raised $2.3 billion in Japan’s biggest initial public offering for six years.

READ: Tokyo Metro shares rocket higher on debut

Wellington, Manila and Taipei also fell.

Hong Kong climbed more than one percent, building on the healthy run-up enjoyed in the wake of China’s raft of economic support measures.

Shanghai also advanced, along with Sydney, Seoul, Singapore and Jakarta.

Gold touched a new record of $2,749.03 owing to the uncertainty over the US vote as well as ongoing fears about the Middle East crisis as Israel plots its retaliation against Iran after this month’s missile barrage by Tehran.

The geopolitical concerns offset the rowing back of US rate-cut bets that had helped propel bullion higher in recent months.

Oil ticked down after surging more than two percent Tuesday in reaction to Chinese authorities lifting import quotas on independent oil refineries from next year in a sign growth may be recovering.

Key figures around 0230 GMT

Tokyo – Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.3 percent at 38,300.81 (break)

Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: UP 1.4 percent at 20,791.98

Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.5 percent at 3,301.44

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0797 from $1.0800 on Tuesday

Pound/dollar: UP at $1.2982 from $1.2977

Dollar/yen: UP at 151.74 yen from 151.02 yen

Euro/pound: UP at 83.17 pence from 83.14 pence

West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.3 percent at $71.52 per barrel

Brent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.3 percent at $75.79 per barrel

New York – Dow: FLAT at 42,924.89 (close)

London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.1 percent at 8,306.54 (close)