Corn, soy fall further on expectations for massive US harvest

Corn and soy (left) file/stock images

CANBERRA — Chicago corn and soybean futures edged lower again on Monday after the US Department of Agriculture last week confirmed that ongoing US harvests will be among the largest on record.

Wheat futures also slipped after the USDA raised its global wheat supply outlook, though concerns about exports from the Black Sea limited losses.

The most-active corn contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Cv1 was down 0.2 percent at $4.14-3/4 a bushel at 0545 GMT and trading at its lowest level since Sept. 27.

CBOT soybeans Sv1 slipped 0.2 percent to $10.04 a bushel after falling below $10 for the first time in a month.

US farmers produced even more corn than expected this year, the USDA said in a report on Friday, with the country on track for its second-biggest harvest ever.

The USDA trimmed its US soybean forecast but production is still set to be the highest on record.

The United States is the world’s largest corn exporter and the No. 2 soybean supplier.

The upgrade for corn was unexpected considering dry conditions in September, said Vitor Pistoia, an analyst at Rabobank in Sydney.

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Traders are also watching Brazil, the top soybean exporter and a big shipper of corn, where rain is forecast to ease dry conditions that threatened production, said Pistoia.

“As rainfall returns or becomes more solid in Brazil, the market will dive a little,” he said.

CBOT wheat Wv1 was down 0.5 percent at $5.96 a bushel but was holding near 3-1/2-month highs reached at the start of the month.

The USDA on Friday reduced its estimate for world 2024/25 production but raised its ending-stocks outlook to 257.72 million metric tons, 1.6 million tons more than analysts had expected.

Top exporter Russia, meanwhile, asked exporters not to sell wheat by tender to international buyers below a minimum price, sources said.

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The de-facto price floor – and a rise in wheat export duties – is set to curb exports that flowed in large quantities in recent weeks.

Meanwhile, agricultural consultancy Sovecon cut its 2024 Russian wheat harvest forecast to 81.5 million tons from 82.9 million tons previously.

Adverse weather conditions have hit Russia and several other major wheat exporters, reducing crop yields and lifting CBOT prices in recent weeks.

The weather outlook for Russia over winter and into spring suggests average rainfall and warm temperatures, which could create problems for crops, said Pistoia.

“It’s a bullish story,” he said.