Stocks advance as US inflation data raises rate cut hopes

Employees work on the exterior of a brokerage display showing the numbers of the Japanese yen versus US dollar (L) and against other currencies (R), along a street in Tokyo on August 14, 2024. (Photo by Richard A. Brooks / AFP)

New York, United States — Global stock markets mostly rose on Wednesday after further evidence of cooling US consumer price inflation bolstered the prospect of a September interest rate cut.

Eagerly awaited data showed the US consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.9 percent last month from a year ago, its smallest 12-month increase since March 2021 and a positive sign for the Federal Reserve as it weighs the best time to start cutting interest rates.

READ: Asian markets extend gains as US inflation data boost rate hopes

All three major indices on Wall Street finished in the green Wednesday, led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which closed up 0.6 percent.

“Today’s US inflation figure clears the runway for the Federal Reserve to initiate a rate cut at its September meeting,” said Richard Carter, Quilter Cheviot’s head of fixed interest research.

“The last thing the Fed and the market will have wanted prior to the next meeting was any surprises in the data, and while some may still appear, inflation is at least playing ball and that is the most important data point to consider still,” he added.

“It’s no longer a question of ‘if’ or ‘when’ the Fed will cut rates, but rather, whether the Fed will cut by 25 or 50 basis points,” said Bret Kenwell, US investment analyst at eToro.

25 or 50?

Monetary policymakers are tipped to cut US rates by 25 basis points at their September meeting — with some observers eyeing as much as 50 — followed by at least one more cut before December.

A weak US jobs report earlier this month, including a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3 percent, caused worries that the Fed had waited too long to begin cutting interest rates and that the world’s largest economy might fall into recession.

While subsequent data has calmed those fears, market expectations that the Fed will deliver bigger interest rate cuts have grown.

READ: US producer inflation cooler than expected in July

Weak inflation and jobs data “may give the Federal Reserve greater confidence to accelerate its pace of interest rate cuts,” said Mahmoud Alkudsi, senior market analyst at ADSS.

On Wednesday, Tokyo extended gains and Europe’s main indices closed solidly higher, as traders digested an expected pickup to Britain’s Consumer Price Index.

Oil prices fell further as it was confirmed Israeli officials will participate in Gaza truce negotiations in Doha on Thursday.

Tensions remain high in the Middle East on fears Iran will retaliate against Israel after top leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah were assassinated in Tehran and Beirut in late July.

Luca Santos at ACY Securities said ample supplies and hopes that a full-blown conflict can be avoided have seen oil prices slide.

But he warned that “any significant escalation could shake up oil supplies, leading to sharp price hikes and a return of risk-averse behaviour in the markets.”

Key figures around 2030 GMT

New York – Dow: UP 0.6 percent at 40,008.39 points (close)

New York – S&P 500: UP 0.2 percent at 5,455.21 (close)

New York – Nasdaq Composite: FLAT at 17,192.60 (close)

London – FTSE 100: UP 0.6 percent at 8,281.05 (close)

Paris – CAC 40: UP 0.8 percent at 7,333.36 (close)

Frankfurt – DAX: UP 0.4 percent at 17,885.60 (close)

EURO STOXX 50: UP 0.7 percent at 4,727.60 (close)

Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.6 percent at 36,442.43 (close)

Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.4 percent at 17,113.36 (close)

Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.6 percent at 2,850.65 (close)

Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1012 from $1.0998 on Tuesday

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2829 from $1.2867

Dollar/yen: UP at 147.43 yen from 146.80 yen

Euro/pound: UP at 85.83 pence from 85.46 pence

West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 1.7 percent at $76.98 per barrel

Brent North Sea Crude: DOWN 1.2 percent at $79.76 per barrel