Thailand lowers 2024 GDP growth projection to 2.8%

BANGKOK  -Thailand’s economy is expected to grow 2.8 percent this year, a sharp downgrade from an earlier forecast of 3.2 percent, the finance ministry said on Tuesday, bolstering the government’s push for stimulus to revive an economy it says is in “crisis”.

Gross domestic product (GDP) expansion last year was also down significantly, seen by the ministry at just 1.8 percent, compared to 2.7 percent seen earlier. The economy expanded 2.6 percent in 2022 and 1.5 percent in the July-September quarter of 2023 from a year earlier.

Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, who is also finance minister, is eager to revive Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy with an injection of 500 billion baht ($14.05 billion) this year by transferring 10,000 baht ($281) to 50 million Thais to spend within six months.

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The government is also seeking to boost tourism, a key economic driver, in a move to offset weakness in exports, another crucial sector, which was projected to contract 1.5 percent last year.

Tourism, exports

The finance ministry sees foreign arrivals in 2024 at 33.5 million, down slightly from a previous expectation of 34.5 million, and forecast exports growing 4.2 percent this year, from an earlier forecast of 4.4 percent.

The economy is expected to grow faster than last year due to higher exports, services and tourism arrivals, the ministry said in a statement.

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Separately, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected growth of 2.5 percent in 2023, lower than its November projection of 2.7 percent expansion, but saw 2024 growth at 4.4 percent, above the 3.6 percent forecast in November.

“Growth is projected to accelerate briefly in 2024, on account of improvements in external demand and robust growth in private consumption bolstered by the government’s fiscal stimulus,” it said in a Jan. 22 statement.

($1 = 35.5900 baht)