Russia to end rate hiking cycle with final increase to 16% on Friday

A Russian state flag flies over the Central Bank headquarters in Moscow, Russia, Aug 15, 2023. A sign reads: “Bank of Russia”. REUTERS/Shamil Zhumatov/File photo

MOSCOW  – Russia will raise interest rates to 16 percent on Friday, a Reuters poll showed on Monday, with inflation pressure exacerbated by labor shortages and lending growth forcing the central bank to extend its monetary tightening cycle to one last hike.

The expected 100 basis point increase at the Bank of Russia‘s final meeting of the year should mark the end of a tightening spree that began in July, when rates were as low as 7.5 percent.

Stubbornly persistent inflation pressure, aggravated by the ruble’s dramatic weakening earlier this year, as well as labor shortages, government spending and high lending, has pushed rates to their current level of 15 percent.

READ: Russian consumers feel themselves in a tight spot as high inflation persists

Twenty-three of 27 analysts and economists polled by Reuters on Monday predicted that the Bank of Russia would raise its key rate to 16 percent at Friday‘s meeting. Three predicted a sharper hike, one forecast a hold at 15 percent.

The bank surprised analysts in late October with a stronger-than-expected 200 basis point hike to 15 percent.

Alexander Fetisov, head of Rosselkhozbank’s analytics department, forecast a 100-basis point hike, with higher credit growth and increasing inflation expectations creating grounds for the central bank to make another hike and maintain tight rhetoric.

“A more radical increase cannot be ruled out with the aim of mitigating likely inflation trends at the start of 2024 and to maintain the inflation forecast range for 2024 at 4-4.5 percent,” Fetisov said.

Monthly inflation accelerated in November at its fastest pace since April 2022, data showed on Friday, all but cementing analyst expectations for a hike.

Annual inflation stood at 7.48 percent last month, well above the bank’s 4 percent target and almost exceeding its 7-7.5 percent forecast range for 2023.

“The overheated labor market, growing state spending and active issuance of subsidized mortgages are leading to significant inflationary pressure,” said Sovcombank, forecasting a hike to 16 percent.

READ: Russian economic prospects ‘foggy’ as sanctions cut deep

Inflation and high interest rates are among challenges facing Russia‘s economy as President Vladimir Putin prepares for a March presidential election, though Moscow’s success in evading a Western oil price cap is helping drive a recovery in economic growth and easing pressure for now.

In late February 2022 Russia ramped up its benchmark rate to 20 percent in an emergency move after Moscow dispatched tens of thousands of troops to Ukraine, which led to increasingly wide-ranging Western sanctions being imposed in response.

The key rate was then gradually cut to 7.5 percent, before the bank started hiking in July.