US private payrolls miss expectations in November

People line up outside a newly reopened career center for in-person appointments in Louisville, U.S., April 15, 2021. REUTERS/Amira Karaoud/File photo

WASHINGTON – U.S. private payrolls increased less than expected in November as the labor market gradually cools.

Private payrolls rose by 103,000 jobs last month, the ADP National Employment Report showed on Wednesday. Data for October was revised lower to show 106,000 jobs added instead of 113,000 as previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private payrolls rising 130,000.

The ADP report, jointly developed with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, was published ahead of the release on Friday of the Labor Department’s more comprehensive and closely watched employment report for November.

The ADP report has been a poor gauge for predicting the private payrolls count in the employment report.

The labor market is steadily slowing in the aftermath of 525 basis points worth of interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve since March 2022. The government reported on Tuesday that job openings fell to more than a 2-1/2-year low of 8.733 million in October. There were 1.34 vacancies for every unemployed person, the lowest since August 2021.

READ: US job openings lowest in more than 2-1/2 years

According to a Reuters survey of economists, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to report that private payrolls increased by 153,000 jobs in November as about 33,000 striking United Auto Workers union members returned to work. Private payrolls rose 99,000 in October.

Total nonfarm payrolls are estimated to have increased by 180,000 in November after rising 150,000 in the prior month.

Easing labor market conditions together with ebbing inflation have led financial markets to believe that the Fed’s monetary policy tightening campaign was over and that the U.S. central bank could cut rates as soon as next March. The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged next Wednesday.