Barclays sees Fed raising rate in January instead of December

Barclays said it now expects the U.S. Federal Reserve to deliver a 25 basis point interest rate increase in January instead of an earlier expectation for a December hike.

The brokerage cited softer-than-expected October employment data and dovish Fed commentary for the forecast push to next year.

The Labor Department’s closely watched employment report on Friday showed that the unemployment rate rose to 3.9 percent last month, the highest level since January 2022, from 3.8 percent in September.

“We continue to think the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) will need to proceed with additional tightening and will have to maintain a higher rate path than expected by the market, with no rate cut prior to September 2024,” economists at Barclays said in a note dated Nov. 3.