Weak exports seen cutting ’12 growth

Philippines exports are expected to remain weak in the first semester and drag the full-year performance of total domestic output, or gross domestic product (GDP), according to DBS Group.

The financial services group said in a research note that fluctuations in international demand for Philippine goods would remain the most important factor in determining GDP growth in 2012.

“In the 11 months [to] November [2011], exports slumped 6 percent, led by the all-important electronics manufactures, which fell 31 percent,” the Singapore-based firm noted.

“In real terms, this has translated into exports declining by 4 percent in the first three quarters of the year,” it added. “With the export numbers from October and November still showing contractions, the figure for the fourth quarter is unlikely to be much to cheer about.”

According to the National Statistics Office, the value of outbound goods settled at $3.34 billion in November, falling by 19.4 percent year on year and 18.2 percent month on month. The NSO said 11-month exports dropped 5.6 percent to $42.3 billion.

“Unfortunately, the export outlook for the first half still appears cloudy,” DBS said. “Uncertainty about the eurozone debt crisis and slowing global growth will continue to weigh on external demand.”

DBS said exports would shave off 1.4 percentage points to GDP growth in 2012, which is an improvement compared to the estimated 3 percentage points it took from 2011 growth.