MANILA, Philippines—Philippine plans for lower rice imports in 2012, along with those of Bangladesh, pushed down the expected volume of global rice trade by a million tons to 31.9 million.
According to the US Department of Agriculture’s latest forecast detailed in its Rice Outlook report, this year’s rice trade volume will be at least 8 percent lower than the 2011 level of some 29.5 million tons.
The report’s author, Nathan Childs, said import forecasts were lowered for the Philippines and Bangladesh, while export forecasts were lowered for both Thailand and Brazil, but raised for Cambodia.
“On the import side, the Philippines’ 2012 import forecast was lowered 700,000 tons to 1.5 million tons—the same level as in 2011—based on information from the US agricultural counselor in Manila, stating that the government of the Philippines wants the country to be less dependent on imports,” said Childs, who works for the US Economic Research Service (US-ERS).
According to the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (BAS), production of palay in the first half of 2012 is expected to reach 7.78 million metric tons, 2.7 percent higher than the 7.58 million MT yield in the same period of 2011.
“Harvest area may increase by 1.4 percent (year on year) to 2.02 million hectares from 1.993 million has in 2011,” BAS said. “Yield per hectare may improve to 3.85 MT this year from 3.8 MT last year.”
The BAS added that significant increases in production and harvest area are expected in Cagayan Valley, Bicol, Caraga and the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, which could be attributed to the availability of planting materials and the expected wet summer brought by the La Niña phenomenon.
The US-ERS’ Childs said global stocks for the 12 months ending in October 2012 are projected at 100.1 million tons, an increase of 3 percent from the previous year.
But while global stocks are increasing for the fifth consecutive year, Philippine rice stock is projected to decline along with those of Brazil, Indonesia and the United States.
This year, the government is spending some P35.9 billion on irrigation systems and programs that would ensure an adequate supply of crops and livestock amid efforts to attain self-sufficiency in food production.
The national rice program, which targets a 19.2 million metric ton-yield of rice this year, will get P4.3 billion, or an increase of 43 percent from last year.