Analysts peg August inflation at 5%

INQUIRER FILE PHOTO

MANILA, Philippines — Private-sector analysts expect the pickup in overall inflation in August to hit 5 percent, slightly below the central bank’s average projection of 5.2 percent.

The Bangko Sentral ng Pillipinas (BSP) earlier said the rate of change in the prices of goods and services that households commonly purchase may have ticked up to within 4.8 percent and 5.6 percent in August, from 4.7 percent in July

ING Bank said the August print could show 5 percent, agreeing with the BSP that prices of fuel and rice were the main upward pull.

Also, this group based in The Netherlands said the rising trajectory of the volatile prices of the staple grains and petroleum products could offset the decrease in prices of a few food items. The Philippine Statistics Authority will announce the official readout for August on Sept. 4. Robert Dan Roces, chief economist at Security Bank Corp., also projected 5 percent for August or within the range of 4.8 percent to 5.2 percent.

“While there is a noticeable increase in the price of rice, the overall inflation rate for August 2023 remains within a reasonable area and is significantly lower than the surge experienced earlier this year,” Roces said.

Moderate uptick

“This likely uptick in the August inflation is relatively moderate compared to the inflation spike experienced by consumers from December 2022 to February 2023, and was exacerbated by base effects from August 2022,” he said.

Roces added that the forecast for the fourth quarter is promising, with inflation expected to fall within the BSP target range of 2 percent to 4 percent.

This, barring sustained spikes in rice and fuel in the remaining months of this year, which Roces said remain considerable upside risks to the inflation projections.

Meanwhile, Jonathan Ravelas, managing director of eManagement for Business and Marketing Services, is forecasting lower at 4.9 percent.

According to FMIC and UA&P Capital Markets Research, the “spike” in inflation last August will likely be repeated in September due to higher oil and food prices.

“We think this will prove transitory as the supply response to high prices should prove adequate to bring year-on-year inflation” to within the range of 2 percent to 4 percent by the fourth quarter,” FMIC and UA&P said.