Asian markets softer as investors look to key inflation readings

A woman walks past an electric board showing Nikkei index and exchange rate between Japanese Yen and U.S. dollar outside a brokerage at a business district in Tokyo, Japan Jan 4, 2023. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/File photo

SYDNEY – Asian share markets were mostly weaker while the U.S. dollar higher on Tuesday as investors awaited inflation readings from China and the United States to deliver an updated outlook on the health of the global economy.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 0.9 percent on Tuesday, after U.S. stocks ended the previous session with mild gains. The index is down 2.8 percent so far this month.

The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes rose to 4.0885 percent compared with its U.S. close of 4.078 percent on Monday. The two-year yield, which rises with traders’ expectations of higher Federal Reserve fund rates, touched 4.7682 percent compared with a U.S. close of 4.758 percent.

Australian shares were up 0.39 percent, while Japan’s Nikkei stock index rose 0.72 percent.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was off 1.73 percent while China’s blue chip CSI300 Index lost 0.54 percent in early trade.

The mixed start in Asia follows a stronger night in U.S. markets.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.16 percent, the S&P 500 gained 0.90 percent and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.61 percent.

Global investors are keenly awaiting inflation readings from China on Wednesday and the U.S. on Thursday, expecting them to show stark differences in price movement in the world’s two biggest economies.

U.S. inflation likely accelerated slightly in July to an annual 3.3 percent, while the core rate was likely unchanged at 4.8 percent, according to a Reuters poll of economists. ANZ predicts China’s July consumer price index to come in at minus 0.4 percent year on year.

“The Fed is wary of upside risks to elevated inflation given demand for labor remains excessive, and most policy makers think the policy rate will need to be kept restrictive,” ANZ economists wrote on Tuesday.

“Weak inflation in China should be a global disinflationary force in goods markets going forward.”

Chinese trade data for July to be published later on Tuesday is likely to show a 12.5- percent fall in exports from a year earlier, showed the median forecast of 28 economists in a Reuters poll.

The prospect of economic stimulus from China’s central government to reinvigorate a flat-lining economy is still being contemplated by investors. Minor measures to help property markets have been delivered in the past fortnight, but no broad stimulus has been outlined.

“While awaiting ominous signs of deflation markets are torn between economic gloom and hopes of resounding stimulus that is set to re-ignite China’s growth,” Mizuho economists said.

“We are however unconvinced that Beijing’s stimulus efforts will achieve intended ‘lift-off’ for the still struggling economy.”

The dollar was flat against the yen at 142.47. It is still some distance from its high this year of 145.07 hit on June 30.

The European single currency was down 0.1 percent on the day at $1.1002 while the dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies of major trading partners, was up at 102.07.

U.S. crude ticked up 0.51% to $82.36 a barrel. Brent crude rose to $85.73 per barrel.

Gold was slightly lower with the spot price at $1935.55 per ounce.