The bad news of 2011 may turn into good news in 2012, the Year of the Dragon.
Typhoons may have cost the Philippine economy 0.63 percent worth of direct damages and lost productivity in 2011, according to the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA).
That is the amount of physical damage sustained in affected areas with destroyed bridges, roads, irrigation canals, and other infrastructure, combined with lost productivity and other forms of indirect damage due to typhoons, flooding and related weather disturbances.
The impact of such foregone production could shave off 0.4 percentage points from the country’s potential gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2011, NEDA assistant director general for planning and policy Ruperto P. Majuca said in a phone interview.
Yet full reconstruction may also add 0.078 percent to this year’s GDP and generate much-needed jobs, Majuca added.
Timely reconstruction would be a welcome boost as leading economic indicators such as tourist arrivals, electricity consumption, consumer price index, and others “augur well” for the start of the Year of the Dragon, the National Statistical Coordination Board reported just last week.
To maximize recovery, Majuca said, the Philippine government must invest in timely infrastructure rehabilitation, climate change adaptation and social programs for affected Filipinos.
Repair and rehabilitation works for damaged roads, irrigation facilities, and other infrastructure will provide jobs for displaced people and help restore affected areas quickly.
To reduce the probability and magnitude of typhoon damage, the local and national governments can put together an early warning system and use risk assessment studies as part of land use plans. Compliance audits on environmental and work programs, combined with policies on managing small-scale mining, will help, Majuca explained.
The country must invest in satellite and equipment for the weather bureau, the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, or Pagasa, he also said.
Assistance must be extended to affected families in such a way that they can have some form of income, say through crop farming inputs or provisions for livestock farming.
Those rendered jobless due to business disruptions will benefit from temporary work or a food-for-work program.
Private economists agree that there must be a strong national-local policy coordination to minimize the negative impacts of storms and natural calamities.
The government’s geohazard map, for one, should be publicly accessible and used by local governments in preparedness plans, the economists said.