Mixed blessing from ‘Year of Water Dragon’
As feng shui experts see this Lunar “Year of the Water Dragon” ushering in mixed blessings in a generally prosperous period, the Philippines must harness the energy of this divine beast to build the platform for a higher growth path, the government’s former chief investor relations officer said.
Cora Guidote, now vice president and chief investor relations officer at holding firm SM Investments Corp., told a Philippine business forum on Saturday that the country could grow 6-7 percent next year, picking up from the 5.5-6.5 percent growth range targeted by the government’s economic managers this year.
But Guidote said this assumed that this year, the government would spend more on infrastructure that, in turn, would encourage more foreign direct investments (FDIs) and thus provide a greater kick for the chronically consumption-driven economy. She said the 6-7 percent growth for 2013 was especially achievable especially coming from a lower base relative to this year.
As the country was now getting about $18 billion in annual remittances and $2 billion in FDIs, if the latter would increase just a bit more, Guidote said this would have a substantial impact on the economy.
She stressed that the country was enjoying good fundamentals and was drawing long-term optimism from global investors, citing HSBC’s prediction that the Philippines could be the 16th biggest economy by 2050. On the other hand, she said there were a lot of governance issues that turned off investors during the previous regime. During the nine-year Macapagal-Arroyo administration, trend growth rate was at around 4.7 percent.
For 2013, SMIC’s investor relations officer had projected that exports would also grow at a faster pace of 14 percent from this year’s official goal of 12 percent while growth in remittances was seen stable at 5 percent.
Overall, Guidote said the dragon was a symbol of good fortune and intense power. “Everything Dragons do is on a grand scale—big ideas, ornate gestures, extreme ambitions,” she said, adding that dragons can, however, be their worst enemies. “Too much enthusiasm tends to leave them tired and unfulfilled. Their pride can often impede them from accepting help from others.”
But since water has a calming effect on the dragon’s fearless temperament, she said energies would be “more benign and perceptive.”
“The energy is supportive of calculated risks. Understanding the art of patience will bring smarter decisions,” Guidote said, noting that for the business sector, “focus is required because there will be many external distractions.”
Guidote said there were certain growth enhancers that the government could pursue to boost growth prospects, foremost of which is the rollout of the medium-term development plan, which would better help business planning. She said the economy was “currently running like a headless chicken as growth targets are not very clear.”
A more accommodative fiscal policy seen last year was also seen as urgent. “Business can and will do better if the drive for fiscal consolidation and the drive against corruption is balanced with fiscal support for the broader economy through infrastructure and job creation,” Guidote said.
She added that there must be greater support for the agriculture sector toward self-sufficiency and to make the sector less vulnerable to climate change.
Finally, she said the government must improve its disaster management program, noting that the current tack “leaves much to be desired and is highly fragmented.”
