Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas. (File photo / Philippine Daily Inquirer)
MANILA -The outlook of both business and households for the quarter ahead turned less optimistic as they continue to be worried about high prices of goods and services despite a downtrend of inflation over the past four months.
These are from the findings of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) latest quarterly surveys on business sentiment and consumer expectations, conducted during the second quarter this year.
The Business Expectations Survey covered 1,549 firms drawn at random from the list of Top 7,000 Corporations ranked based on total assets in 2016 from the Bureau van Dijk database.
It was conducted from April 5 to May 24, with three out of five giving answers.
Meanwhile, the Consumer Expectations Survey covered a random sample of about 5,427 households across the Philippines. It was done last July 3 to July 18 and 98 percent answered.
According to the BSP, the business outlook index for the next quarter—in this case the third quarter of 2023—eased to 46.4 percent from 49 percent in the previous survey done during the first quarter.
Aside from high inflation, the respondents’ less optimistic outlook for the next quarter was attributed mainly to expectations of seasonal downturn in production and sales during the rainy season, lower demand for consumer and intermediate goods such as food supplements and plastic products, fewer construction projects, and high interest rates.
The confidence index is computed as the percentage of respondents that answered in the affirmative less the percentage of households that answered in the negative with respect to their views on a given indicator.
Among households, confidence also eased down to 20.5 percent from 22.5 percent in the previous survey.
Households were worried about the possibility of a faster increase in the prices of goods and higher household expenses, lower income, and fewer available jobs as well as whether policies and programs to generate employment, support economic growth, and control inflation were effective.
For the next 12 months—in this case July 2023 to June 2024 —households and businesses’ outlook is likewise not so rosy.
The respondents’ less upbeat outlook for the next 12 months was attributed to their concerns over high inflation, expected decrease in sales due to weaker demand, perceived slow rollout of government infrastructure projects, high interest rate, and the adverse effects of El Niño. INQ
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