Philippines may become key global growth driver

The Philippines has the potential to become one of the top 10 countries that can greatly contribute to global growth within the decade, Goldman Sachs said.

According to the investment bank, the Philippines is among the N-11 [Next 11] economies that are likely to advance to the stage of “growth countries,” or nations that account for at least one percent of global gross domestic product.

The N-11 economies are Mexico, Korea, Indonesia, Turkey, Iran, Egypt, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Philippines and Vietnam.

Goldman Sachs said that, except for Vietnam and Bangladesh, all N-11 economies could advance to the “growth” classification.

The investment bank’s projection is anchored on the relatively low incomes observed of most N-11 economies in the past. As a result, the countries have much room for growth and may improve their economic fundamentals significantly.

The nine economies from the N-11, along with the so-called BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China), are expected to contribute the most to global growth from 2011 to 2020.

“Growth markets have the potential to be among the top ten contributors to global growth over the next decade,” Goldman Sachs said.

The Philippines grew by 3.6 percent in 2011. In the past decade, it posted an average growth of close to 5 percent.

Goldman Sachs said the growth rate of N-11 countries and BRICs could accelerate further in the decade to 2020, driving much of the global economy.

For 2012, the investment bank expects the global economy to grow by 3.4 percent. Over the next eight years, the growth rate may average at 4.3 percent, led by the N-11 nations and BRICs.

“Average growth rates suggest that global growth is likely to be much stronger in the current decade, at 4.3 percent, than in the past 30 years. This is due to the impetus from the BRIC economies and the other growth markets,” Goldman Sachs said.