Economy’s trajectory, corporate PH’s health to keep investors on their toes

The Philippine first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data, which will be released on May 11, and other upcoming corporate earnings will keep investors busy as the benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) nears a key resistance area.

The PSEi rose 0.91 percent last week to end Friday’s session at 6,685.66.

“Positive momentum from last week could see investors in a dance of bulls and bears in the coming trading days as US April inflation and Philippine first quarter GDP figures are released and as the index trades near the 6,700 to 6,750 resistance zone,” Juan Paolo Colet, managing director at Sy-led investment bank China Bank Capital Corp., said in a note to investors over the weekend.

“The PSEi could sustain a rally if domestic economic growth surprises on the upside and US inflation shows signs of abating,” Colet added.

A key event last week was the announcement of another 25-basis point interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. In the Philippines, the government announced that domestic inflation cooled for a third straight month last April to 6.6 percent.

“With the recent decline in global commodity prices, inflation may sustain its downward path in the coming months,” Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) said.

“The [Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)] may justify a pause in its rate hikes considering the current path of headline inflation. However, we are not counting out another hike in the upcoming meeting since core inflation remains elevated,” BPI said.

“Second round effects have persisted and this may require additional tightening,” it added.

The BSP’s next interest rate-setting meeting is scheduled on May 18.

—Miguel R. Camus INQ