Dollar climbs as Treasury yields pop on further Fed hike forecasts

SINGAPORE  – The dollar hovered near a one-month peak on Tuesday as traders raised their forecasts of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate levels needed to tame inflation, as a stubbornly resilient labour market remains largely immune to aggressive rate hikes.

Markets were still reeling from the shock of Friday’s jobs report, which showed that non-farm payrolls surged by an eye-watering 517,000 in January, well above expectations.

The report, which wrongfooted traders banking on an imminent pause in the Fed’s rate-hiking cycle, gave the greenback a leg up and sent the pound tumbling to a one-month low of $1.2006 in the previous session. It was last 0.09 percent higher at $1.2033.

Similarly, the kiwi rose 0.06 percent to $0.6308, but was not far from Monday’s one-month trough of $0.6271.

The euro gained 0.06 percent to $1.0733, having slid to $1.0709 in the previous session, the lowest since Jan. 9.

“Since last Friday, (when) the U.S. reported a stronger than expected jobs number, this has reversed expectations that the Fed would pivot in its monetary policy,” said Tina Teng, market analyst at CMC Markets.

“I don’t think the jobs number is key … but it’s definitely a major impact on (the Fed’s) monetary policy.”

U.S. Treasury yields have risen on the back of higher rate expectations, with two-year yields touching a one-month high of 4.493 percent on Monday. Two-year yields last stood at 4.4347 percent.

The benchmark 10-year yields were last at 3.6305 percent, having similarly climbed to a four-week peak of 3.6550 percent in the previous session.

Futures pricing show that markets are expecting the Fed funds rate to peak just above 5.1 percent by July, compared with expectations of less than 5 percent prior to Friday’s jobs report.

The surging greenback pushed the U.S. dollar index to a near one-month high of 103.76 on Monday, and it was last marginally lower at 103.52.

Ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate decision later on Tuesday, the Aussie gained 0.23 percent to $0.6899.

The RBA is widely expected to lift the cash rate by 25 basis points, and the focus will be on the accompanying statement for clues on the likely path for monetary policy this year.

Elsewhere in Asia, the Japanese yen rose 0.2 percent to 132.37 per dollar, but remained pinned near Monday’s one-month low of 132.90 per dollar.

Data on Tuesday showed that Japan’s real wages rose in December for the first time in nine months, though uncertainty remains over whether pay hikes will continue to sustain the country’s economic recovery.

A newspaper report on Monday said that Japan’s government has sounded out Bank of Japan (BOJ) Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya to succeed incumbent Haruhiko Kuroda as central bank governor. Amamiya is considered by markets as more dovish than other contenders.

“I don’t think the BOJ will reverse monetary policy,” said CMC’s Teng, on market hopes the central bank will abandon its yield curve control policy once a new governor takes office.

“There are still economic concerns, there are still recessionary risks.”