Thai central bank raises key rate to 1.5% as expected

BANGKOK  – Thailand’s central bank raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points for a fourth consecutive meeting on Wednesday, as it attempts to curb high inflation even as the return of Chinese tourists brightens the country’s economic growth prospects.

The Bank of Thailand’s (BOT) monetary policy committee voted unanimously to raise the one-day repurchase rate to 1.5 percent at its first review of the year.

Of the 23 economists polled by Reuters, 21 expected the BOT to raise the key rate by a quarter point while the remaining two forecast no change.

The central bank in a statement on the committee’s meeting said the economy is projected to continue growing while headline inflation should decline.

Any further rate hikes would be gradual and measured, but it stood ready to adjust them as needed, it said.

“The committee deems that a continuing gradual policy normalisation is an appropriate course for monetary policy consistent with the growth and inflation outlook,” the BOT said .

Exports were expected to slow this year before picking up in 2024 alongside a global recovery, it added.

With Wednesday’s move, the central bank has raised the benchmark rate by a total of 100 basis points (bps) since August.

The tightening cycle has been less aggressive than many of its regional peers, however, as Thailand’s economic recovery has lagged that of other Southeast Asian countries. Its vital tourism sector only started to rebound late last year.

The BOT previously said the key rate would continue to rise for a while to help the economy grow fully and to allow inflation to return to its target, which is expected in the second half of 2023.

Average headline inflation hit a 24-year high of 6.08 percent last year, far above the BOT’s target range of 1 percent to 3 percent. In November, the central bank predicted inflation would drop to 3 percent in 2023.

In November, the BOT forecast Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy would grow 3.7 percent in 2023, after estimated growth of 3.2 percent last year. Official 2022 gross domestic product (GDP) data is due next month.

The BOT predicted 22 million foreign arrivals this year and 31.5 million in 2024. There were 11.15 million foreign visitors last year, compared with a record of nearly 40 million in pre-pandemic 2019.

China’s reopening is expected to further boost Thailand’s tourism, with the government predicting at least five million Chinese visitors this year, about half of the 2019 figure.

The baht  stood largely unchanged at 32.77 to the dollar after the announcement.