Joseph Lacson—CONTRIBUTED PHOTO
A diplomat who says “yes” means “maybe,” a diplomat who says “maybe” means “no,” and a diplomat who says “no” is no diplomat, said the statesman Talleyrand.
As if overtime in basketball isn’t exciting enough, the written sword play and verbal jousts at COP27 went to extra innings as parties powered forward in finding winning, acceptable, enforceable agreements. But just what is COP27; what’s new this time around, and what does it mean for the Filipino?
1. COP27 is the 27th United Nations Climate Change Conference or Conference of the Parties. This year, it was held in Sharm El Sheikh (Egypt). Last year, it was in Glasgow, and next year it will be in Dubai. Over 35,000 delegates, including world leaders, diplomats and nongovernmental organization (NGO) representatives coming from 190 countries came to this year’s summit, hoping to accelerate global climate action through emissions reduction, scaled-up adaptation efforts and enhanced flows of appropriate finance. It seems simple enough, but the reality reveals a much more complex, interweaved set of considerations that are not solvable by empty slogans or “black versus white” dichotomies.
No one, except for the deranged or delusional, would argue against the importance of our environment. Everyone understands that we must take care and nurture Mother Earth or risk the sad fate that befell the Easter Islanders. But environmental goals must also be seen in light of other aspirations. Dreams of a better life from having electrification, access to clean water, robust health systems, social safety nets, humane wages, etc. are but some of the aspirations which are beyond the reach of many. These goals have to be interlocked with environmental aspirations unless humanity wants to move back to some preindustrial age dystopia that would feature reduced life expectancies and a dramatic drop in all, if not most, quality-of-life measures. Further complicating matters are issues around the uneven nature of development across the globe and the vast chasm of “contributions” to the climate problem between nations. Developed countries on a per capita basis by far have a much greater impact on the environment than less developed countries. Simply put, 10 people who live in a hut with no electricity or car and who till the land have far less impact on the environment than someone who uses air conditioning all day, drives a car and works in a steel mill. If that isn’t challenging enough, throw in geopolitical concerns and rivalries, historical hurts, vested interests, backsliding on previous commitments, etc. In such a complex brew, it’s no wonder that diplomats, ideally armed with vision, skill and determination, are needed if COP27 and future climate summits are to succeed. (But I do wonder if flying in 35,000 people for the summit was the wisest way to show care for the environment; couldn’t they have done this online instead?)
2. COP27 will be known as the Loss and Damages Summit. Initially bandied about some years back, loss and damages were front and center at this year’s conference as those most affected but least responsible for climate change seek redress. Maldives, for example, contributes only 0.03 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions; any reduction will not move the needle. But the rise of sea levels threatens her very existence as 80 percent of Maldives’ islands are only a meter above sea level. This risk cannot be addressed by mitigation or adaptation. That nation, along with many others who find themselves in similar situations, are seeking loss and damages payments/funding/financing from those nations most responsible for climate change. It took extra time but finally, an agreement was finally reached to create a new fund that would cover loss and damages. Now comes further work around the actual mechanics and quantum of the fund.
The modern day diplomats at Sharm El Sheikh also managed to craft agreements around: retaining the 1.5 degree Celsius target and the phase down of the use of coal; and provision to bolster low emissions energy, a reference to the “tipping point” (risk of tripping feedback loops that will lead to increasingly deteriorating effects). And the mention of “the right to a clean healthy and sustainable environment” further underscored the link between the climate and health.
Stepping back and looking at a wider view, one does see the progress that has been made since the first climate summit (Rio ’92) and the subsequent developments through the years. From a starting point of recognizing the climate change challenge and setting general guiding principles, the global community has steadily moved toward a better response to the environmental realities. There will be disagreements over the pace and extent of progress being made but there has been progress. Human advancement, when examined with a discerning eye, reveals itself to be a product of a series of incremental, iterative steps over an expanded time frame rather than simply one brief, brilliant moment. Positive actions on the climate and national development will take on the same path.
3. For Filipinos, the impact of COP27 holds the promise to be positively significant. The creation of a new loss and damages fund will enable the Philippines, with our share of emissions at 0.8 percent versus share of population at 2 to 3 percent, to gain greater financial resources to rebuild areas ravaged by typhoons and storms. Taxing high emitting, energy exporting countries may create new funding streams to soften the blow of high energy prices. Retaining the previously set global climate goals (e.g., 1.5 degree Celsius) likely means that current national thrusts—including the strong push for renewable energy, the moratorium on new coal plants, the nudge toward electric vehicles, the promotion of energy efficient and eco-friendly practices—will continue. Taking the cue from the government, the private sector will follow suit and expect the already fast-growing renewable energy development pace in the country to accelerate even further. What’s of note, which certain sectors or other countries may not fully appreciate, is that these actions are taken not in a vacuum but in a context wherein other equally important goals—to improve people’s lives, provide access to reliable electricity and water, increase prosperity, improve health outcomes, etc.—are taken into account. For those looking to COP27 for one-sentence answers to difficult questions, they will be disappointed. But for enlightened Filipinos who see the multidimensional nature of the challenges ahead, COP27 represents a step forward to our common goals.
The great element of human endeavor is that unlike in soccer, matters need not end up in sudden death. There need not be a winner or loser. Parties are unlikely to get all that they want all the time, but it’s likely that each side will get a piece of what they hope for at some point. Whether it’s at COP27, succeeding climate summits, or the Philippine government, industry, NGOs and public interactions, it’s worth keeping in mind that absolutism is likely to fail. We are all going to have to work together—give and take—to create lasting solutions. —contributed INQ
The author is chief investment officer at Aboitiz Power Corp.