Indonesia Oct trade surplus seen down to $4.5B as global trade weakens- Reuters poll

JAKARTA – Indonesia’s trade surplus is seen narrowing slightly in October to $4.5 billion, amid weakening in global trade and moderating commodity prices, a Reuters poll showed on Monday.

Exports from Southeast Asia’s biggest economy have been buoyed since last year by high commodity prices, but prices of some key commodities like palm oil have been declining in the past few months.

The median forecast from 15 economists in a Reuters poll was for a $4.5 billion surplus in October, below September’s surplus of nearly $5 billion.

Export growth was seen at 13.85 percent annually in October, slower than September’s 20.28 percent , while imports were seen up 23.62 percent on a yearly basis, versus 22.02 percent in September.

Bank Mandiri’s economist Faisal Rachman, who predicted a $4.42 billion October surplus, said while export growth was slowing, demand for imports was rising in preparation for year-end needs.

Still, the Indonesian government has forecast the resource-rich nation will book its biggest exports on record this year of $292 billion.