PH seen to sustain 4-5% growth this decade

Growth-wise, the Philippine economy is performing in the middle of the pack in Southeast Asia, where United States-based management consulting firm Bain & Company sees a rosy picture for the rest of this decade.

In a joint report released in partnership with Singapore-based Monk’s Hill Ventures, Bain & Company said the Philippine gross domestic product (GDP) may grow by 4-5 percent yearly throughout the 2020s, based on 2011 prices.

Among peers in the region, Vietnam will perform best, growing by 5-7 percent annually.
Indonesia, the largest economy in Southeast Asia, is expected to also grow by 4-7 percent. Expected to lag behind are Malaysia (3-5 percent) and Thailand (2-3 percent).

The interagency Development Budget Coordination Committee projects that Philippine GDP will increase by 6.5-7.5 percent in 2022 and, from 2023 to 2028, by 6.5-8 percent.

“(The Philippines has) shown steady improvement over the last two decades, but the ability to do business always lags the potential of its educated and dynamic population,” the report said.

For the major Southeast Asian countries, the report painted a “rosy scenario” compared to the growth headwinds faced by Europe, Japan, China and emerging regions like Latin America and Eastern Europe.

“While many economists have correctly focused on the pro-growth policies, stable macroeconomics and healthy demographics of Southeast Asia, they are often missing two critical sources of additional growth — the growing impact of tech-enabled entrepreneurs on investment, productivity and economic inclusion, and that Southeast Asia’s largest trading relationships are with China. As China grows, Southeast Asia grows,” the report added.

Further, the report said the region could benefit from technology-enabled disruptors or TEDs, which are impacting traditional growth drivers by promoting business creation, enabling healthy competition, raising investment, strengthening e-government, improving education and productivity levels and improving infrastructure.

Charles Ormiston, founding partner of Bain & Company Southeast Asia, said they remained optimistic about Southeast Asia’s continued growth in the face of global instability and that the region “maintains the possibility of out-growing other emerging regions in the world over the next decade.”