Singapore central bank tightens policy, Q3 GDP tops forecast

SINGAPORE  – Singapore’s central bank on Friday tightened monetary policy for the fourth time this year to rein in inflation running near a 14-year high, and left the door open for further policy action amid upside risks to the price outlook and global uncertainty.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), at a scheduled policy meeting, said it will re-center the mid-point of the exchange rate policy band known as the Nominal Effective Exchange Rate, or S$NEER. There will be no change to the slope and width of the band.

The Singapore dollar was up about 0.3 percent to S$1.1429 per U.S. dollar after the policy decision.

MAS has made two off-cycle tightening moves this year, in January and July, as inflation in the city-state remains elevated. This is the fifth round of tightening since last October.

The MAS manages monetary policy through exchange rate settings, rather than interest rates, as trade flows dwarf its economy.

It adjusts its policy via three levers: the slope, mid-point and width of the policy band, which let the Singapore dollar rise or fall against the currencies of its main trading partners within an undisclosed band.

Selena Ling, head of treasury research and strategy at OCBC, said the MAS move “suggests that there will be less concern about downside growth risks, which can taken care of through the upcoming budget.”

She added that further tightening is possible at next April’s scheduled review.

On Friday, the central bank said all the tightening moves so far will further reduce imported inflation but cautioned about persistent cost pressures.

“The Singapore economy will grow at a slower pace in tandem with weakening global demand,” MAS said.

“However, core inflation will stay elevated over the next few quarters, as imported inflation remains significant and a tight labor market supports strong wage increases,” it added in its statement.

The core inflation rate — the central bank’s favoured price measure – rose to 5.1 percent in August on a year-on-year basis. It was 4.8 percent in July.

MAS said core inflation is likely to stay at about 5 percent for the rest of 2022, and into early 2023.

Gross domestic product (GDP) was up 4.4 percent in July-September on a year-on-year basis, according to advance estimates from the Ministry of Trade and Industry also released on Friday.

On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted basis, GDP expanded 1.5 percent in July-September.

“Q3 GDP obviously benefitted from domestic and border restrictions being eased,” said Song Seng Wun, an economist at CIMB Private Banking.