Neda: K-12 graduates to bloat labor force, keep jobless rate high in 2023

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MANILA, Philippines—With more graduates of the K-12 basic education curriculum expected to join the labor force next year, the National Economic and Development Authority (Neda) is bracing for a possibly higher jobless rate in 2023.

Socioeconomic Planning Undersecretary Rosemarie Edillon told the Inquirer on Tuesday (Aug. 23) that the state planning agency had sought a number of interventions so that young Filipinos graduating from the K-12 program next year will have something to do— in school or at work–during a transition period if they decided to pursue a college degree.

“For next year, we have suggested an increase in scholarships for masters of arts or science degrees, and other re-skilling and microcredential programs. We will also push for more internship programs,” Edillon said.

“We think that these can shorten the transition, especially since it will coincide with economic recovery and transformation” amid the new normal following the prolonged COVID-19 pandemic, the Neda official said.

Edillon pointed out that pre-pandemic, the labor force increased by an average of 600,000 yearly from 2016 to 2019.

“This, notwithstanding, we note that between 2018 and 2019, there was an increase in the labor force by 1.3 million, yet the unemployment rate was a low of 5.1 percent, because of the sustained growth which encouraged more investments” before COVID-19 struck, she said. It was in 2018 when over 1.2 million senior high school students graduated from the K-12 program.

But with additional K-12 graduates entering the labor force in 2013, Neda expects a bigger-than-usual 1.5 million new entrants to the job market next year.

“The expected increase in the labor force is mainly because of the economic recovery and the stabilization of the K-12 stream,” Edillon said.

More Filipinos–including youth and senior citizens–have been looking for jobs amid economic reopening from previously stringent COVID-19 lockdowns, which had shed millions of livelihoods and shuttered thousands of businesses.

With reopening of more productive sectors coupled with economic rebound in full swing, more jobs were expected to be generated, although their quantity and quality may lag behind.

Documents on the proposed P5.268-trillion 2023 national budget had estimated the unemployment rate inching up to 5.7 to 6.8 percent next year from 5.1 to 6.5 percent this year, remaining above pre-pandemic levels.

President Marcos’ economic managers had said their eight-point socioeconomic agenda aimed to slash the jobless rate to 4 to 5 percent by 2028. The economic team had said it could be done by raising the share of wage and salaried workers in the private sector to 53 to 55 percent of total by the time Marcos ends his term, from 48 percent in 2021.

TSB