Gov’t urged to ‘get real’ on GDP targets

Some economists have questioned the National Economic and Development Authority’s (NEDA) forecast that the Philippines has a “good chance” of meeting its 4.5 to 5.5 percent economic growth target for 2011 and its 5 to 6 percent aim for 2012.

“The government should get real. The economy has to grow by 11.2 percent in the fourth quarter in order to attain full year growth of 5.5 percent. That’s beyond reach,” Dr. Benjamin E. Diokno of the UP School of Economics said.

The Philippine economy grew by 3.6 percent in the first three quarters of 2011, lower than the 8.2 percent growth in the same period last year, NEDA data showed.

Compared with Asian neighbors such as China, Indonesia, Vietnam, Singapore and Malaysia, this growth was on the lower range.

Diokno noted that the spending figures for October show continuing underspending in public infrastructure, which has pulled down growth, as measured in terms of gross domestic product (GDP), in previous quarters.

He also noted that trade statistics show exports are plummeting.

“Full-year contraction might hit 5.2 percent,” Diokno said.

Dr. Cid L. Terosa, of the University of Asia and the Pacific, said, “Growth would be between 4 to 4.5 percent this year.”

Terosa did agree, however, with NEDA’s outlook on growth prospects for 2012.

Last week, Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Cayetano W. Paderanga Jr., who is also NEDA director general, said in a briefing that while the task seems daunting, government is keeping its “optimism” on targets for economic growth. This, he said, is because of holiday season spending, increased business and consumer confidence, a more stable macroeconomy, and broadly steady consumer sentiment.

Government has also started to fast-track spending, the country’s top economist said.

As of November 8, the Department of Budget and Management has already released P43.4 billion, or 60.2 percent, of the total program cost, according to government figures.

Going into 2012, consumer sentiment indicates more optimism, Paderanga said.

“We will also experience the full implementation of the P72-billion Disbursement Acceleration Program of the government in the coming year,” Paderanga said.

Paderanga added that the government will try to help exporters boost sales through diversification and by promoting policies for closer integration with fast-growing Southeast Asian economies.

The services sector is expected to support growth, particularly real estate. Production in the agriculture sector will be boosted by the implementation of the Food Staple Self-Sufficiency Roadmap for 2011-2016.