Consumers see rosier year ahead with more jobs, higher pay

Filipino consumers were less upbeat about the three months ahead but more confident about next year when asked on March, when their confidence was still negative, according to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).

This was based on results of the BSP’s latest Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) conducted from March 21 to March 31. There were 5,175 households that responded, of which 52 percent were from Metro Manila and the rest from outside the region.

Among respondents, two-fifths were middle-income; one-third were high-income; and about one-fourth were low-income.

The BSP evaluates three component indicators of consumer sentiment—the country’s economic condition, the financial situation of the respondent’s family and family income.

Results show that consumer confidence in the first quarter improved although still negative, with the confidence index—computed as the difference between the optimists and the pessimists—settling at -15.1 percent compared to -24 percent in the preceding period—the fourth quarter of 2021. This means that fewer respondents were pessimistic about the quarter’s prospects compared to the previous quarter.

Looking forward to the next period—the second quarter of 2022—confidence remained positive but less sanguine, with the index easing to 6.4 percent from 9.3 percent.

“Respondents’ less upbeat sentiment for [the second quarter] stemmed from their concerns about the faster increase in the prices of goods, low to no increase in income; and high unemployment rate,” the BSP said.

Higher interest rates

For the next 12 months— April 2022 to March 2023— consumers looked forward to a rosier future with the index rising to 30.4 percent from 23.6 percent in the previous survey.

“Respondents attributed their brighter year-ahead outlook to expectations of more available jobs, additional and high income, good governance and salary increase,” the BSP said.

On March, households were more upbeat about spending on goods in services over the succeeding three months, with the index rising to 40.4 percent from 29.6 percent. This was so even as consumers expected interest rates to rise, the peso to depreciate, and inflation to breach the government’s target range of 2 to 4 percent.

And while consumers expected inflation to hit 5.5 percent over the next 12 months, they also expected that the unemployment rate might decline.

Further, there was an increase in the number of households that have a member working abroad and which either set aside their remittances for savings or invested a portion of such inflows. INQ