How to profit from a crisis

Illustration by Rachel Revilla

As Paul Romer, Stanford economist and recipient of the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences, said: “A crisis is a terrible thing to waste!”

Every crisis presents unique opportunities. The changes that result from a global pandemic of the magnitude of COVID-19 are so dramatic that they inevitably produce a new economic world order with a very uneven distribution of winners and losers. Add to it an unforeseen war like the one between Russia and Ukraine, and you have a situation that offers unique fortunes for the businesses that play their cards correctly.

The birth of giants

Do not get me wrong: COVID-19 and the war between Russia and Ukraine are terrible tragedies, and my heart is crying out in light of the pain that countless people have had to endure and continue to bear. I have spent a large part of my life building up a nonprofit foundation for world peace, besides my commercial businesses and have taken it to global acclaim. Nobel Peace Prize Laureate Desmond Tutu called my foundation’s inaugural event “the most influential peace gathering in history.” But, this is a column about profits and the survival and thriving of your business during times of uncertainty.

Economic downturns and periods of uncertainty always present unique opportunities. Throughout history, recessions, crises and profound changes have proven to be fertile grounds for innovation and the birth of some of the world’s greatest companies.

What do the following global companies have in common: General Electric, General Motors, IBM, Disney, HP, Hyatt, FedEx? All of them started during a recession or crisis.

The poker game they want you to lose

Think about this as a poker game. Radical change, such as that caused by a global pandemic or an unforeseen war, means that all the cards get reshuffled for everyone who has a seat at the table. Your competitors who had their strategies all figured out? They were also dealt new cards. And what do most companies typically do when they are dealt new cards? They sit and wait.

You have to act as fast as possible and realize that life just dealt everyone around the table a brand new set of cards. Now, your objective should be to get your teams together with the best and brightest experts you can afford, plot your new strategy, get your ducks in a row and execute ruthlessly. Why? Because most of your competitors will be disoriented and clueless and, at best, hesitant.

You wait, you die

Hesitation is a killer in an environment of dramatic change. This is the time when companies are bought for peanuts, future empires are built and the master chess players in the game of business are making their most important moves. The best time to strike is always when everyone else is confused or waiting to see what happens.

If you want a sports analogy, type “Brazil 1-7 Germany Extended Highlights 2014 FIFA World Cup” into YouTube and watch the 14-minute official FIFA summary. It is a typical example of what happens when one team gets utterly confused (in this case, the Brazilians) and another team is ready to capitalize on it (in this case, the Germans). I am not saying this because I am German. I actually could not care less about soccer. But, this is a lesson about what hesitation, confusion and surprise can do to an otherwise brilliant team. And the same can happen to your competitors if you play your new cards correctly.

How to see opportunities where others see none

The most successful business leaders today and throughout history view uncertainty and crisis as great opportunities. Why is this important? It’s fundamental to look at reality through the right glasses. We think we see true reality but in fact, we only see a tiny portion of it filtered through our strengths, weaknesses and our character.

This is why the famous saying “in the expert’s mind, there are few possibilities and in the beginner’s mind, there are many” exists. You might have heard the story of the student who went to the Zen monk to learn from the master. When the master poured the student a cup of tea, the student asked what he was doing as his teacup was already full and flowing over. The master simply responded: “You cannot fill a cup that is already full. You can only fill an empty cup.”

We need to keep a beginner’s mind because it will allow us to see opportunities where others see none. The beginner’s mind of looking at things from an entirely different perspective built the foundation for some of the biggest companies we see today.

Famous examples

If you look at companies like Airbnb: did its founders invent the internet or the hotel industry? No. They saw an opportunity where no one else did: that anybody can function as a hotel as long as they have a room somewhere in the world. This opportunity existed before but they had a beginner’s mind of looking at everything from a fresh perspective.

Another example is Uber. Even though it is not legally accepted everywhere in the world, the same principle applies: Did Uber invent the taxi or transportation industry? Of course not. Did they open up a taxi service that was a little bit better than other taxi services? No. They revolutionized this industry because they saw an opportunity no one else did, namely, that anyone can function as a taxi.

Solutions and next steps

Ever since my global consulting company and I started to work with Coca-Cola CCI in over 11 crisis territories that were marked by political and economic instability, we have established a global reputation as experts in managing change in times of uncertainty and crises. Drawing on that experience, I will share with you some practical steps on how to profit from uncertain times and drastic changes.

1. The first thing you need to do is to analyze the new trends coming out of the crisis and their impact on your business, the industry and the economy you operate in. Start with global trends, then move to local trends. Get the best experts you can afford to support you because a pair of fresh expert eyes will often see the unexploited opportunities lying within easy reach.

2. Think about the differences in trends in terms of their impact and timing: global and local trends may be the same, or they may be different, or they may happen at different times (they often do).

3. Put a task force together composed of top talent within your organization. However, they must come from different ranks and departments. You want as diverse a group as possible. 4. Brainstorm together to identify opportunities that could result from the new environment your business is facing. At this stage, do not evaluate your results yet but focus on making the list as long as possible.

5. Once you have compiled a long list, start to evaluate the different options to reduce it to a clear list of top priorities you can execute.

6. If you end up with too many new opportunities to choose from, act on the ones that fall within your natural circle of competence. INQ

Tom Oliver, a “global management guru” (Bloomberg), is the chair of The Tom Oliver Group, the trusted advisor and counselor to many of the world’s most influential family businesses, medium-sized enterprises, market leaders and global conglomerates. For more information and inquiries: www.TomOliverGroup.com or email

[email protected].