Lower November inflation expected

MANILA, Philippines — Price hikes continued to decelerate in November with the inflation rate likely having returned to within the central bank’s target range, economists polled by the Inquirer last week said.

Twenty out of the 21 economists expect a lower rate of increase in prices of basic commodities than October’s 4.6 percent. Fifteen forecasts were within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 2 to 4 percent target band of manageable headline inflation.

The Philippine Statistics Authority will release its November inflation report on Tuesday.

ING’s Nicholas Antonio Mapa and Moody’s Analytics’ Sonia Zhu shared the lowest forecast of 3.7 percent year-on-year.

“Normalizing food inflation and softer transport price increases may help bring headline inflation back within target for only the second time this year. We still may see some follow-on inflation for health care and other services as supply chain bottlenecks keep pressure on prices amid a decent recovery in demand,” Mapa said.

Ateneo de Manila University’s Ser Percival Peña-Reyes, Capital Economics’ Alex Holmes, Regina Capital’s Luis Limlingan, Rizal Commercial Banking Corp.’s Michael Ricafort, UnionBank’s Ruben Carlo Asuncion, and University of Asia and the Pacific’s Victor Abola projected 3.8 percent.

Abola, Asuncion, Limlingan and Ricafort pointed to base effects from last year, while Holmes also noted that “a bumper rice harvest has seen supply jump and will weigh on rice prices, which have a chunky 8-percent weight in the consumer price index” basket of goods measuring inflation.

HSBC and Security Bank’s Robert Dan Roces forecasted 3.9 percent. “Primary upside risks include global crude and other commodity price movements, while the downside is posed by the Omicron variant. Food remains susceptible to supply snags,” Roces said.

—BEN O. DE VERA