Debt watcher Moody’s Investors Service expects a growth rebound across Asia-Pacific, but emerging markets like the Philippines where mass vaccination is not progressing fast enough face a slower recovery.
“During 2022 to 2025, more than half of Asia-Pacific economies will return to or above prepandemic growth averages,” Moody’s said in a regional report on Friday.
Moody’s estimates showed the Philippines among those that would post slower gross domestic product (GDP) expansion in the next four years compared to prepandemic growth rates.
Moody’s estimates showed that the Philippines’ GDP would grow at an average of about 6 percent from 2022 to 2025, lower than the 6.5-percent average from 2016 to 2019.
By 2023, the Philippines’ economic output would be almost 15-percent smaller compared to Moody’s estimates had the pandemic not happened.
The projected decline in the Philippines’ 2023 output compared to prepandemic forecasts was only eclipsed by those to be experienced by Maldives and Macau, both of which were badly hit by the slump in international travel and tourism.
“[Asia-Pacific countries] with higher vaccination rates are positioned to recover faster. Countries with lagging vaccination rates are primarily emerging markets—including Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam,” Moody’s said.
Moody’s said governments’ pandemic response would shape the outcome of elections in countries like the Philippines.
“Dissatisfaction with country-specific management of the control of infections, vaccine rollouts (inequitable distribution, supply and vaccine hesitancy) and the provision of economic support has resulted in popular backlash against administrations in several economies,” it said.