WB: High oil prices to stay until H1 ’22

Fuel prices are expected to remain high throughout the first half of 2022 and make economic recovery trickier for energy importers like the Philippines.

The latest World Bank (WB) Commodity Markets Outlook shows that global crude oil prices are expected to average at $70 per barrel in 2021 from $41 per barrel in 2020.

A continued uptrend is expected in 2022, with the average of the different international benchmarks—Brent, West Texas and Dubai—forecast at $74 per barrel as demand reaches prepandemic levels.

The World Bank forecasts that energy prices will start to decline in the second half of 2022 as supply constraints ease.

Before that happens, however, additional price spikes may occur amid very low inventories and persistent supply bottlenecks.

“The surge in energy prices poses significant near-term risks to global inflation and, if sustained, could also weigh on growth in energy-importing countries,” said Ayhan Kose, director of the WB’s Prospects Group, “The sharp rebound in commodity prices is turning out to be more pronounced than previously projected.” “Recent volatility in prices may complicate policy choices as countries recover from last year’s global recession,” he added. In the Philippines, from Aug. 31 to Oct. 26, prices of gasoline have risen by a total of P9.10 per liter of diesel, P8.35 per liter of gasoline and P8.60 centavos per liter of kerosene. INQ