Consumers, business optimistic about Q4, says BSP survey

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas. (File photo / Philippine Daily Inquirer)

Filipino consumers are more optimistic about the coming final quarter of the year, but are less upbeat about their prospects for the next 12 months, according to the results of the central bank’s latest consumer confidence survey.

At the same time, a parallel business confidence survey issued simultaneously by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) showed that local businessmen are optimistic about the fourth quarter of 2021, and even more upbeat about the next 12 months.

In a statement, the regulator said consumer sentiment for the fourth quarter of 2021 improved as the confidence increased to 2.7 percent from the previous survey result of 1.3 percent. But the respondents’ outlook for the next 12 months was less optimistic as the confidence index declined to 18.6 percent from the previous survey result of 19.8 percent.

“Respondents attributed their optimism to the availability of more jobs, additional and higher income, effective government policies and programs, and stable prices of commodities,” the BSP said, adding that the improved consumer sentiment for the fourth quarter was observed across the three indicators: the country’s economic condition, family’s financial situation, and family income.

Spending outlook

The survey also showed that households’ spending outlook on goods and services for the fourth quarter of 2021 was more upbeat as the confidence index increased to 31.4 percent from the previous survey’s result.

The survey results showed that consumers anticipated that interest rates may increase in the fourth quarter and over the next 12 months. Filipinos also expect the peso to depreciate in the last three months of 2021, but may appreciate over the next 12 months.

Meanwhile, Filipino businessmen remained optimistic for the next quarter as the overall confidence index increased slightly to 31.9 percent from 31.4 percent a quarter ago.

For the next 12 months, business sentiment was more optimistic as the overall confidence index increased to 56 percent from previous quarter’s survey result of 52.5 percent.

For the fourth quarter of 2021, the outlook of importers and domestic-oriented responding firms was more optimistic, while that of exporters and dual-activity firms was less buoyant.

Sentiment

For the next 12 months, the improved business sentiment persisted across the different types of respondent trading firms as the indices were higher than the previous survey results, except for the dual-activity firms whose positive outlook was relatively steady.

Business outlook across all sectors remained in the positive territory for the last three months of the year, but at varying degrees. Business sentiment in the industry, construction, and wholesale and retail trade sectors was more buoyant for the next quarter. Likewise, the confidence index across all sectors for the next 12 months was more positive. INQ

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