The Department of Trade and Industry expects the economy to grow faster in the fourth quarter, and climb even higher in the coming year, as electronics exports recover from its current slump.
According to Trade Secretary Gregory Domingo, the economy seems to have registered its slowest growth and has nowhere to go but up.
“I think the worst is over, and that fourth quarter (gross domestic product) growth is going to be stronger than in the third quarter. 2012 will likely be a very strong year as electronics exports recover from very low levels this year,” he said in an interview Tuesday.
In an earlier interview, Domingo said the economy could post flat growth or even suffer a decline next year if the electronics sector continued to tread a downward path.
Given current indications and projections made by the Semiconductor and Electronics Industries of the Philippines Inc. (Seipi), however, the government could still hope for a better year next year.
Seipi expected to register a double-digit decline this year and would not see recovery until the first quarter of 2012.
According to data from the National Statistics Office, merchandise export receipts plunged 27.4 percent in September to $3.88 billion from $5.43 billion in the same month last year.
In the first three quarters, the value of goods shipped slipped 3.1 percent to $37.19 billion from the $38.36 billion reported in the same period a year ago.
The significant drop in overall exports was attributed to the 47.9-percent decline in electronic product exports in September. That month, value of shipments only reached $1.81 billion from last year’s $3.48 billion.
From an earlier export growth forecast of 9 to 10 for the year, the government had revised this projection to 5 percent. But the Export Development Council kept its fighting target of a 10-percent expansion for the year.
The economy grew by 3.2 percent in the third quarter, slower than last year’s 7.3 percent. This was due to the dip in exports, bad weather and weak government spending.