Think tank says PH economy ‘on the mend’ albeit wobbly

The Philippine economy likely grew by 10 percent year-on-year in the second quarter coming from a very low base last year, but output likely shrank compared to the first quarter with the reimposition of tighter quarantine protocols.

This is according to New York-based think tank Global Source, which projected a full-year gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 4 percent for the country compared to the 9.5 percent contraction in 2020, which was the worst recession seen since the government started reporting data on economic output in 1947.

Nonetheless, Global Source said in a July 2 research note written by economist Romeo Bernardo titled “Cautiously climbing the ladder, watching out for snakes” that the Philippines now “appears to be on the mend.”

The Department of Health had announced that the country could now be considered “low-risk” following decreases in active COVID-19 cases and hospital occupancy at the national level. Vaccines have also begun to arrive in bulk and inoculation significantly increased to over 220,000 jabs a day, Bernardo noted.

At the same time, more people have gone back to work in May after the strict lockdown in April while factory activity has been improving and mobility rising above pre-lockdown levels as indicated by increased road congestion, the research note said.

“We view these gains to be on the modest side and not enough to pin a more hopeful outlook on. Although there appears to be more control now over the health crisis, daily cases have plateaued at two to three times start-of-year levels and in some regions, infections are rising steeply,” Bernardo said.

“Also, surging COVID-19 cases in neighboring economies alongside low vaccine coverage and much too little work on genome sequencing to detect variants mean that loosening restrictions can only be done in baby steps. The latter in turn implies that business recovery will be tentative as well,” he said.

The government is set to release the second quarter GDP data on Aug. 10.

This developed as more and more businesses rolled out their COVID-19 vaccination programs.

“We have always prioritized the safety and well-being of our employees. We believe that getting vaccinated is a very big step towards a better, safer new normal for our employees and our customers,” said Tony Tan Caktiong, Jollibee Group chair and founder.