IEA: Coal demand set for short-lived rebound

Global coal demand is primed for a rebound, albeit brief, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The IEA said in its Coal 2020 report a “short-lived rebound” in demand for coal—riding on the expected global economic recovery next year—would follow a “major drop” this year caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Global coal demand eased back by 1.8 percent in 2019, only to fall by 5 percent in 2020.

The report noted, however, there was little sign the world’s coal consumption would decline substantially in the coming years. It sees rising demand in some Asian economies offsetting declines elsewhere.

The report also noted coal remained the single-largest source of global energy-related carbon emissions and that it was seeing trends that undermine efforts to rein in carbon dioxide emissions based on climate and sustainability goals.

“Before the pandemic, we expected a small rebound in coal demand in 2020, but we have since witnessed the largest drop in coal consumption since the Second World War,” Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA’s director for energy markets and security, said in a statement.

“The decline would have been even steeper without the strong economic rebound in China—the world’s largest coal consumer—in the second half of the year,” Sadamori said.

The IEA forecasts a 2.6-percent increase in coal demand next year, based on the assumption of a global economic recovery.

Even then, 2021 global coal demand is still expected to remain below 2019 levels, if not lower, especially if economic forecasts are not met.

Further, the usage of coal is tipped to flatten out at around 7.4 billion tons yearly by 2025. If so, the 8 billion tons recorded in 2013 will be an all-time high.

“Renewables are on track to surpass coal as the largest source of electricity in the world by 2025,” Sadamori said. “But with coal demand still expected to remain steady or to grow in key Asian economies, there is no sign that coal is going to fade away quickly.”

Asia, particularly China, India, Japan, Korea, Taiwan and Southeast Asia including the Philippines account for 75 percent of global coal demand.