Finance Secretary Carlos G. Dominguez III INQUIRER File Photo
Without a COVID-19 vaccine, the Philippines may have to implement standards balancing Filipinos’ health and the economy if it wants to recover from the recession soonest, President Duterte’s chief economic manager said on Tuesday.
“I believe we will be able to develop and learn behavior patterns and appropriate technology that will allow us to operate effectively, efficiently and safely, of course,” Finance Secretary Carlos G. Dominguez III replied when asked if the economy could recover despite the lack of a vaccine.
Dominguez had said that once a vaccine was available, the government could afford to purchase shots for 20 million of the poorest Filipinos who would be vaccinated for free through loans from two state-run banks.
Last month, the Cabinet-level Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) cut their gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for 2021 to 6.5-7.5 percent from 8 to 9 percent previously after economic managers acknowledged the uncertainty on vaccine development that could prolong the pandemic.
For 2020, the DBCC projected the economy to shrink by 4.4 to 6.6 percent or an average of 5.5 percent following a recession that saw second-quarter GDP shrinking by a record 16.5 percent year-on-year at the height of the longest and strictest COVID-19 lockdown in the region.
In an email Tuesday, Moody’s Analytics chief Asia-Pacific economist Steven G. Cochrane said they now expected the Philippines’ full-year GDP contraction to hit 5.6 percent.
“Our forecast assumes an economic rebound in both the current quarter and in the fourth quarter of 2020 as the economy begins to open up and economic activity resumes. I would say, however, that the risks are still to the downside,” Cochrane told the Inquirer.
“The continued downturn in the number of cases and the continued pace of the opening of the economy are far from certain,” Cochrane added.
Last week, London-based Capital Economics said that the “Philippine government’s failure to contain the coronavirus is holding back a tentative economic recovery and could even see it go into reverse.”
“Even if recently reimposed restrictions on movement are lifted soon, social distancing will likely last longer amid fears about contracting the virus,” Capital Economics said, referring to the stricter modified enhanced community quarantine imposed in Metro Manila and four neighboring provinces on Aug. 4 to 18 in a bid to stop a surging number of infections in these areas after their economies were opened in June.INQ