Among the bigger Asean-6 economies, the Philippines belonged to the more resilient to the COVID-19 pandemic and global oil price drop even as the country’s twin deficits pose a risk, Malaysian financial giant Maybank said Wednesday (March 18).
“Our ranking in terms of resilience to the current shocks (COVID-19, oil price [and] lockdowns), from most to least vulnerable, is Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Vietnam,” Maybank Kim Eng analysts Chua Hak Bin, Lee Ju Ye, and Linda Liu said in a report.
In terms of economic growth across the region, “recession risks are rising as the economies are hit by falling global demand, supply chain disruptions and also weaker domestic demand due to government ‘lockdown’ measures” to contain COVID-19 from spreading.
Maybank expects Singapore and Thailand’s gross domestic product (GDP) to contract this year.
“The rest of Asean-5—Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines—may see subpar growth rates last seen during the global financial crisis,” Maybank added.
For 2020, Maybank projected the Philippine economy to grow by 6.3 percent, below the government’s 6.5-7.5 percent target range but faster than last year’s eight-year low 5.9-percent expansion.