Fearless forecast for 2012

2012 Lamborghini Aventador

At this time of year, it is tempting—if not traditional—to peer into an imaginary crystal ball to predict what new cars will come on the market in the New Year. Here is my fearless forecast, divided into two categories: confirmed, or information given by the car makers themselves; and iffy, or projections that are tentative and/or aspirational.

Oddly enough, the importers/distributors of luxury brands were quicker to provide their 2012 marketing plans than their mass market counterparts. Toyota Motor Philippines executives whom I texted repeatedly for info finally texted back that they normally don’t disclose their plans to launch new models. Hyundai Asia Resources Inc. said they can’t give any info on 2012 models until possibly Friday, after a meeting with the Hyundai Motor Co. regional office. Honda Cars Philippines Inc. didn’t respond at all to my query. That’s understandable since Honda Motor worldwide is still struggling with supply chain problems after being walloped by three natural disasters: the earthquake and tsunami in Japan last March and now the floods in Thailand that have forced Honda to temporarily shut down its plant there and also here in Santa Rosa, Laguna.

Come to think of it, some of the Asian auto manufacturers may be tightlipped about their New Year plans because of the misfortunes that have beset them in the past two years. Toyota Motor Co. had just overcome quality control issues in North America when they were hit by the twin disasters in Japan last March. After recovering from those, Toyota was again confronted with supply chain disruptions when its plant in Thailand, which produces and exports Toyota vehicles and components worldwide, was flooded and had to be closed.

The two leading South Korean carmakers, on the other hand, have become victims of their own phenomenal success. Hyundai vehicles—the Sonata, Tucson, Elantra, Genesis and Accent in particular—are selling so briskly all over the world that Hyundai’s three plants in Korea and six overseas plants cannot meet the demand despite overtime work. The major markets in the Americas and Europe are given priority, which is why there is a long waiting line for Hyundai products in small markets like Southeast Asian countries including us.

Hyundai Motor’s subsidiary, Kia, is also trying hard to cope with the increased demand worldwide for Kia cars. Since the Philippine market is minor compared to North America and Europe, the best-selling latest model Kia vehicles arrive here one or two years delayed, for example the hot new Sportage. The diesel variant of the Sportage is still being awaited here, by the way.

2012 Ford Ranger

The operations of the American and European car manufacturers, on the other hand, have not been as severely disrupted. General Motors and, more recently, Chrysler have emerged from bankruptcy, paid off their debts and posted net profits. Ford Motor Co., which did not require a US government bailout due to foresight loans earlier swung by Ford president Alan Mulally, is doing great globally with totally revamped, technologically advanced, more fuel-efficient products like the Fiesta, Explorer and Focus. In 2010, Ford Motor earned $6.6 billion, its largest profit in 11 years.

BMW recently overtook Lexus as the top-selling premium brand in the US  while Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, Volkswagen, Audi, Jaguar and Land Rover (with billions of dollars invested by Tata Motors of India) and Volvo (getting billions from its new majority stockholder, Geely of China) are all prospering and picking up the slack left by several Japanese and Korean carmakers.

After that brief look at the global auto industry, let’s see what’s in store for 2012:

Confirmed forecast

CHEVROLET PHILIPPINES, aka The Covenant Car Company Inc., is introducing the all-new 2012 Chevrolet Colorado Duramax pickup and the 2012 Trailblazer SUV.

FORD GROUP PHILIPPINES has confirmed that the 2012 Ranger pickup will be launched in the first quarter despite its plant in Thailand being flooded and shut down temporarily. Later in the year, the 2012 Focus will be launched in Manila.

CATS MOTORS INC. will launch the following all-new Mercedes-Benz cars: the B-Class, M-Class, C 63 AMG Coupe Black series, SLK 55 AMG and CLS-Class. In January, Cats Motors will bring in the 2012 Dodge Challenger muscle car and in the third quarter, expect the 2012 Jeep Grand Cherokee CRDI (common rail direct injection) turbo diesel SUV and the Chrysler 300c SRT executive sedan.

PGA CARS is bringing to the Philippine market super-sports cars like the Lamborghini Gallardo Coupé and Spyder, the Lamborghini Aventador and the new Porsche 911 Carrera plus the new 981 Porsche Boxster, Audi Q3 baby SUV and Audi A1 super-mini.

Speaking of super-minis, British United Automobiles, Inc. will offer the MINI Cooper Coupe, Roadster and MINI One next year.

LEXUS MANILA will launch three new 2012 models: the Lexus GX 460 luxury SUV, GS 350 avant garde sedan and GS450h (as for hybrid) large sedan next year.

ASIAN CARMAKERS CORP. will launch the sixth-generation BMW 3-Series sometime in 2012.

COLUMBIAN AUTOCAR CORP. is bringing in the 2012 Kia Rio subcompact sedan and hatchback

MOTOR IMAGE PILIPINAS INC. is looking forward to offering the new Subaru XV and new Impreza next year.

VIKING CARS INC. is sure to bring over the diesel Volvo S60.

MITSUBISHI MOTORS PHILIPPINES INC. will launch a new variant of the Lancer EX.

Iffy forecast

HONDA CARS PHILIPPINES INC. is expected to unveil the long-awaited 2012 Civic, the all-new 2012 Honda CR-V, which hasn’t been launched anywhere yet, given Honda Motor’s plant closures and supply chain problems due to three natural disasters this year.

TOYOTA MOTOR PHILIPPINES isn’t confirming or denying the arrival of the 2012 Camry. Toyota’s plant in Thailand was also flooded and has been temporarily closed.

Is MAZDA coming out with a new compact SUV, the CX5, to replace the CX7? Just asking.

The midsize KIA Optima sedan and Sportage CRDI turbo diesel just might show up next year.

A fly on the wall told me that the SUZUKI Kizashi 2.4 liter sedan is on its way here.

A yet-to-be-identified new Volvo vehicle that will open an exciting new segment for Viking Cars is appearing next year.

Maybe the Hyundai Accent CRDI diesel and the sporty Velostar three-door hatchback are coming here in 2012?

Honestly, your guess is as good as mine.