In calling for the termination of the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) with the United States, President Duterte is likely playing a game of brinkmanship hinged on the assumption that the VFA is more valuable to the United States than the Philippines, New York-based think tank Global Source said.
In foreign policy, brinkmanship refers to the practice of forcing interaction to the brink of confrontation to gain an advantageous negotiating position over the other party. The technique entails aggressive risk-taking.
Global Source economists Romeo Bernardo and Christine Tang said in a research note dated Feb. 14 that it was quite a surprise that the President had chosen to terminate the 20-year-old VFA, which spelled out the rules for US soldiers on tours of duty in the Philippines, making it easier to conduct military-to-military engagements, such as training exercises, counterterrorism operations and humanitarian assistance.
The research pointed out that just like the pivot to China back in 2016, the decision to terminate the VFA appeared to have been made solely by Mr. Duterte. Meanwhile, members of his Cabinet, particularly the secretaries of foreign affairs and defense had stressed the mutual benefit of the military pact while the Senate passed a resolution asking him to reconsider.
Citing American officials’ early statements, the research noted that Mr. Duterte’s assessment that the United States valued the VFA more than the Philippines might be true. But it added that US President Donald Trump was not about to hand Mr. Duterte an easy win, having stated publicly that scrapping the VFA was “fine” as it would even save the United States a lot of money.
As Mr. Duterte is aware of the Philippine military establishment’s “close, even fraternal” ties with US forces, the research raised the question of whether the chief of the land is “playing with fire” by upsetting the military.
Some quarters believe that the move is part of the President’s China pivot, recalling his announcement during his first state visit to China of the Philippine’s separation from the United States and realignment with China and Russia in a “three of us against the world” call,” the research noted.
Nonetheless, Global Source said Mr. Duterte’s stance “was hard to reconcile” given surveys showing Filipinos’ high trust in the United States, and low trust in China.
“The upside for Mr. Duterte of doing things this way is, if he actually succeeded in scoring gains from the
renegotiation, perhaps in the form of more military aid, then he could claim another legacy of securing a better deal for the country, and doing it by standing up to the world’s superpower. This would turn him into an even bigger hero for his supporters, who cheered him on as he threatened loudly recently to jail business elites,” Global Source said.
“He may even consider the downside limited, since China is already in possession of portions of the South China Sea claimed by the Philippines and as a lawyer, he may consider the VFA a mere side agreement that in the scheme of things, has little bearing on Philippine-U.S. relations. But again, it is a risky gambit. After all, the key person standing in his way is the equally unpredictable U.S. P resident,” the research added.
Mr. Duterte, whose term will end in mid-2022, has so far maintained his popularity that cuts across regions, socioeconomic classes, gender, age groups and educational attainment. This was “all the more perplexing” given his coarse language, autocratic style and widely-condemned human rights abuses related, in particular, to a bloody drug war, the research noted.
“Nonetheless, with his unparalleled influence over several branches of government, and unhesitating use of intimidation to silence anyone in the private sphere seen as opposing him, whether the church, media or lately, business elites, it seems that at this point, he can do pretty much anything he wants,” the research noted.
With only two and a half years remaining in his term, Global Source said analysts routinely read Duterte’s every move through political lenses, expecting that succession planning would be topmost in his mind. Global Source said this might include recent threats of non-renewal of a major television network’s franchise, which, some people surmise, might be to ensure more favorable coverage of his administration and the 2022 elections.
On the other hand, the research noted speculations that the continuing review and weeding out of “onerous” provisions in government contracts, might be to intimidate those supporting the opposition. INQ