Stocks slip as uncertainty reigns in US-China trade talks

Specialist Gregg Maloney, left, and trader David O’Day work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. (AP)

NEW YORK  — U.S. stocks mostly fell on Monday as uncertainty continues to hang over U.S.-China trade talks, or at least over investors’ perception of them.

The stock market has been rallying for five weeks in part on optimism that the United States and China are nearing a stopgap deal to calm their dispute. But President Donald Trump said over the weekend that reports about U.S. willingness to lift tariffs were “incorrect,” only two days after a Chinese official said both sides agreed to rollbacks if talks progress.

Stocks dropped as soon as trading began Monday, and the S&P 500 lost as much as 0.6% from its record level, though indexes pared their losses as the day progressed.

By the end of trading, the S&P 500 was down 6.07 points, or 0.2%, at 3,087.01. The Nasdaq composite slipped 11.04, or 0.1%, to 8,464.28.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was an outlier and eked out another record, in large part because of a big gain for Boeing. It added 10.25 points, or less than 0.1%, to 27,691.49.

A still-strong job market, interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and better-than-expected corporate earnings in the summer have all contributed to a nearly 9% leap for the S&P 500 since late August. The market’s focus, though, has lately seemed to revolve only around the state of U.S.-China trade negotiations.

Stocks in the financial and energy industries have been generally rising since Trump said last month that the U.S. and China were negotiating “Phase One” of a trade deal. But these so-called “cyclical” stocks, whose profits are closely tied to the economic cycle, were among Monday’s losers. Such sudden snaps in movement are frustrating for investors who prefer looking at the longer term.

“The market is myopically focused on the next minute,” said Michael Liss, senior portfolio manager at American Century Investments.

“If I own Chevron or Total, which I do, and we don’t get a ‘Phase One’ signing before the end of the year, I’m not going to sell those stocks,” he said. “I just don’t think that over a three- or five-year time frame, oil demand is going to be dented because of that” even if it “flies in the face of everyone selling cyclicals because we don’t have a trade deal.”

The next hints on progress in negotiations with China may come Tuesday, when Trump is scheduled to deliver a speech on trade and economic policy at the Economic Club of New York.

Monday’s best-performing stocks were real-estate investment trusts, which rose 0.2% for the biggest gain among the 11 sectors that make up the S&P 500. The group pays relatively big dividends, and investors have flocked to them and away from “cyclical” stocks when worries are high that the trade war will hurt the economy.

Boeing soared 4.5% after it said it hopes to resume deliveries of its 737 Max jet next month.

On the losing end were energy stocks, which had some of the market’s sharpest losses as the price of oil weakened. Cabot Oil & Gas dropped 3.4%, Occidental Petroleum lost 3% and Marathon Oil fell 3%.

Bond markets were closed in observance of Veterans Day.

Low interest rates have been a big driver for the stock market’s rally, and the market’s spotlight on Wednesday will shine on Capitol Hill where Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will give testimony about the economy. Most investors expect the Fed to keep interest rates on hold for now after cutting them three times since the summer.

Later this week, the Labor Department will also give updates on inflation at both the consumer and wholesale levels. On Friday, economists expect a government report to show that retail sales returned to growth in October. That would bolster expectations that the economy can keep driving higher as strong consumer spending makes up for manufacturing declines caused by the trade war.

Earnings season is close to complete, and nearly 90% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported their profits for the July-through-September quarter, according to FactSet. Results have been weak due in part to the slowing global economy, with earnings per share down 2.4% from a year earlier, but they haven’t been as bad as Wall Street had forecast.

Asian stock markets fell. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slid 2.6% as tensions intensified between police and political protesters. China’s Shanghai Composite index declined 1.8%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 0.3% and South Korea’s Kospi dropped 0.6%.

European markets were mixed. Britain’s FTSE 100 index slipped 0.4%, France’s CAC 40 added 0.1% and Germany’s DAX lost 0.2%.

Benchmark crude oil fell 38 cents to settle at $56.86 a barrel. Brent crude oil, the international standard, fell 33 cents to $62.18 a barrel. Wholesale gasoline fell 2 cents to $1.61 per gallon. Heating oil declined 1 cent to $1.91 per gallon. Natural gas fell 15 cents to $2.64 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Gold fell $5.80 to $1,455.50 per ounce, silver fell 2 cents to $16.76 per ounce and copper fell 2 cents to $2.66 per pound.

The dollar fell to 109.04 Japanese yen from 109.15 yen on Friday. The euro strengthened to $1.1034 from $1.1024.