The country’s entrepreneurs and consumers are upbeat about their prospects in the upcoming fourth quarter of the year, thanks to the expected seasonal uptick in business and economic activity during the holiday season, according to the twin surveys released yesterday by the central bank.
“For the final quarter of 2019, the outlook of importers and domestic-oriented firms was more buoyant on expectations of higher domestic demand during the holiday season and stronger inflows of overseas Filipino remittances and more favorable macroeconomic conditions,” the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas said in a statement.
Despite this, the same survey showed that the outlook of exporters and so-called dual-activity firms was partly weighed down by expectations of lower demand for manufacturing of industrial products, specifically electronics and semiconductor products.
A sector-by-sector examination revealed, however, that the outlook on volume of business activity was mixed—more bullish for the wholesale and retail trade sector, broadly steady for the industry and services sectors, but less upbeat for the construction sector.
The employment outlook index for the fourth quarter 2019 remained positive although lower at 19.6 percent compared to the previous survey result of 26 percent.
“This suggests that more firms will continue to hire new employees, although the number that said so are lower compared to the previous survey result,” the BSP said.
“The percentage of businesses with expansion plans in the industry sector for the fourth quarter of 2019 was lower at 30.4 percent from the previous survey result of 33.5 percent,” the statement added. “However, the average capacity utilization in the industry and construction sectors for the current quarter was higher at 76.1 percent from 75.5 percent for the second quarter of 2019.”
These results were echoed by the positive outlook of consumers for the same period.
For the fourth quarter of 2019, consumer confidence was more upbeat as the confidence index—the percentage of respondents who replied positively, less those who replied negatively—rose to 15.8 percent from the previous survey result of 9.7 percent.
Similarly, consumer optimism for the next 12 months improved as the confidence index increased to 29.8 percent from the previous survey result of 25.2 percent for the next 12 months.
“Respondents’ more buoyant sentiment for the fourth quarter of 2019 and the next 12 months stemmed from households’ anticipation of availability of more jobs, additional and high income, good governance and stable prices of goods,” the BSP said.
The central bank’s Business Expectations Survey was conducted from July 10 to Sept. 10, 2019, among 1,487 firms nationwide. The Consumer Expectations Survey, meanwhile, was conducted during the entire month of July 2019 among 5,676 households nationwide drawn from the Philippine Statistics Authority Master Sample List of Households.