Renewable energy to grow 11.2% a year

Power generation capacity in the Philippines based on renewable sources other than hydro is expected to see a double-digit annual growth over the next 12 years, driven by the continued growth in the economy and the population.

In a market outlook report focused on the Philippines, analytics firm GlobalData said installed capacity was cued for an 11.2-percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2019 to 2030.

The London-based firm said investments in renewables were being driven by rising electricity consumption, which is expected at 6.5 percent CAGR to reach 173,000 gigawatt-hours in 2030 from 81,7000 gWh in 2018.

“Growing population is driving electricity consumption in the Philippines,” said Harshavardhan Reddy Nagatham, power industry analyst at GlobalData. “As a result, new investment in capacity addition is urgently needed.”

Nagatham in a statement observed that peak demand in the Philippines has been increasing yearly and a lot of new capacity was expected, especially in renewables.

According to National Grid Corporation of the Philippines, peak demand in Luzon alone reached a new high of 11,245 megawatts last May 15.

Nagatham said investments were being given a boost by the government’s drive to reduce its dependence on imported fossil fuel as well as to promote the development of renewable power capacity, particularly solar through the net metering scheme.

Net metering gives incentive to owners of rooftop solar installations with credit for power generated in excess of what they need, which is then delivered to the grid and which they can use to offset future electricity consumption.

“Net metering currently has low adoption in the Philippines, but can play a major role in increasing renewable power capacity in the country and in helping with the supply security,” Nagatham said.

“Creating awareness among the public and businesses to embrace the technology and encouraging the adoption of solar and other renewable power technologies among institutional power consumers will go a long way in achieving the country’s energy independence and security,” he added.

GlobalData estimated that the share of solar and onshore wind power in the country’s power-generation mix would increase to 13 percent and 4.6 percent of total installed capacity in 2030, respectively, from 4.3 percent and 1.8 percent in 2018.

Over the same period, the share of coal in the power mix is expected to decrease to 32.5 percent from 36.4 percent.