Widening current account gap poses risks to peso

The peso may weaken due to a widening current account deficit after strengthening against the dollar in the first quarter, thanks to solid macro fundamentals, the Department of Finance said on Friday.

In an economic bulletin, Finance Undersecretary and chief economist Gil Beltran said the peso appreciated by 0.01 percent versus the greenback as of end-March as the domestic currency “tracked its peers in Southeast Asia in gaining strength against the dollar.”

The Chinese yuan, Indian rupee, Indonesian rupiah, Malaysian ringgit, Singaporean dollar, Thai baht and Vietnamese dong also gained against the US dollar year-to-date as of March 29.

On the other hand, the Hong Kong dollar, Japanese yen, New Taiwan dollar and South Korean won were weaker than the greenback in the first three months.

The peso was deemed stable, as its volatility, as measured by the coefficient of variation, was 0.56 percent.

A currency’s volatility refers to the magnitude of its fluctuation against the dollar.

Beltran said “the outlook for the peso remains tilted toward the downside owing to a growing current account deficit, which, in turn, is on account of increased importation of capital goods.”

The current account deficit ballooned to a record $7.9 billion last year as more dollars were spent on imports.

Economic managers had said that with the Duterte administration’s ambitious “Build, Build, Build” infrastructure program in full swing, demand for imports of mostly capital goods would remain strong in the near term.

But despite this downward pressure on the peso, Beltran said “the country’s external stance remains generally strong.”

“First, it has ample buffers against heightened external headwinds; its gross international reserves remain high at $82.9 billion, equivalent to 7.3 months of imports of goods and services,” Beltran said.

“Second, it has prudently trimmed its external debt exposure. External debt-to-GDP (gross domestic product) ratio as of end-2018 remains comfortably low at 23.9 percent in 2018, significantly down from 59.7 percent in 2005,” he added. —BEN O. DE VERA