Oxford Economics: PH will be 2nd fastest growing emerging market in 2019-2028

MANILA, Philippines — With an expanding labor force, the Philippines will be eclipsed only by India among emerging markets (EMs) expected to post the fastest economic growth in the next 10 years.

In a February 15 report, UK-based Oxford Economics projected the Philippines’ gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by an average of 5.3 percent between 2019 and 2028, only outpaced by India’s 6.5 percent.

For 2019, Oxford Economics had said its expects the Philippines’ GDP growth at 6.1 percent, below the government’s 7-8 percent target range.

China and Indonesia’s economies were both seen expanding by 5.1 percent during the 10-year period; Malaysia, 3.8 percent; Turkey, 3 percent; Thailand, 2.9 percent; Chile, 2.6 percent; Poland, 2.5 percent; and South Africa, 2.3 percent.

The labor force in the Philippines was projected to increase by an average of 2.3 percent during the next 10 years, the fastest among the 10 emerging markets.

The labor force growth figure was computed by Oxford Economics as the number of people in the labor force multiplied to the average number of hours worked.

Total factor productivity growth was seen at 1 percent, while capital deepening or the contribution of capital accumulation to labor productivity growth was projected to rise by 1.6 percent from 2019 and 2028.

In a report titled “Sustained growth in EMs calls for thrift and innovation,” Oxford Economics said that while “countries with higher gross domestic saving (as a share of GDP) tend to have higher trend growth… the Philippines seems to be a major outlier, but its domestic savings are supplemented heavily by remittances.” /kga