PH growth forecast for 2018, 2019 cut

The regional macroeconomic surveillance organization Asean+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (Amro) has cut its 2018 and 2019 growth forecasts for the Philippines even as Budget Secretary Benjamin Diokno on Wednesday said that the first two years of the Duterte administration posted the fastest economic growth among post-Marcos administrations.

In its January 2019 Asean+3 Regional Economic Outlook Monthly Update released Wednesday, the Amro downgraded its 2018 gross domestic product (GDP) growth projection to 6.4 percent from 6.5 percent previously.

The government will report on the 2018 GDP performance next week.

The Amro’s adjusted 2018 forecast was below the government’s 6.5-6.9 percent target range.

For 2019, the Amro’s growth forecast for the Philippines was 6.3 percent, below the earlier projection of 6.4 percent in its October 2018 report as well as the government’s 7-8 percent target.

The Inquirer asked the Amro why it cut its 2018 and 2019 GDP growth projections for the Philippines, but it has yet to reply as of press time.

In a press conference, Diokno said he expected GDP growth last year to have hit 6.5 percent.

Average economic growth in 2017 and 2018—the first two full years of the Duterte administration—was pegged by Diokno at 6.6 percent, which he said was the fastest rate in the first two years across six administrations after former President Ferdinand Marcos.

“In comparison, the Aquino III administration posted an average of 5.2 percent for 2011-2012,” Diokno said.